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01.11.2012 06:38 PM
Fundamental Analysis For November 01, 2012

A good start, at least in terms of macro data, marks the beginning of the penultimate month of the year: the ADP private employment survey for October showed a figure of 158,000 jobs created, about 20,000 above expectations.

With the official data from the Department of Labor to look at, and encouraging figures about the decline in the unemployment rate, the market faces crucial days.

The official figure is usually not very different from the ADP survey, at least that is what seen in recent months. And these data arrives in difficult times, with presidential elections within five days.

The resumption of trading, which occurred on Wednesday, did not leave too. After a euphoric start, leading shares lost strength, to close the Dow Jones a few points below last Friday's close. This behavior is reflected in turn the currency market.

The euro, which had exceeded 1.30, again fell, and recovered positions timidly at these times, seeking the same goal. The pound, meanwhile, halted its rise after a UK manufacturing PMI fell again to below 50 points. But do not lose uptrend, and in the short term, is presented with a force that does not exhibit the euro.

The yen has just fallen back to 80 units against the dollar, with the good news of private employment, which in turn is propelling the Dow Jones index futures in the prior U.S. session.

Data are not minor expected during the next few hours: at 10:00 Eastern, will be known index of consumer confidence, which had been postponed on Tuesday, and the ISM manufacturing, which is expected to exceed 51 points. At 10:30, it's the turn of oil inventories, which have impact on the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar.

From the afternoon, expect a pause in the movements, typical of the days before the jobs data.

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