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26.08.2011 01:40 PM
Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for EUR/USD. A Weekly Review.

Intraday timeframe

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Ishimoku:
The situation with the euro is ambiguous at this chart as the Buy signal has been formed but the Bollinger Bands are showing a lack of trend. This signal is confirmed as the Chinkou Span is above the price curve and the signal is strong because the price is above the Ishimoku cloud. That is why it is not recommended to trade long on the day timeframe, for starting long positions it is necessary to wait for the Bollinger Bands’ divergence upwards. In this case the first target of the rising motion will be the first resistance level 1.4705. If this level is passed then the next target will be the second resistance level at 1.5013. If the price fixates below Kijun-sen (1.4295), Buy signal will weaken and this will be the signal to narrow long trades. The price is below the lines of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen which shows a rising sentiment. I do not recommend to think of short trading before the formation of Sell signal. Tenkan-sen is directed upwards, which denotes a rise in short-term period. Kijun-sen is also directed upside which shows that in a long-term outlook a rising trend will continue. The Chinkou Spanis above the price curve which confirms the Buy signal and demonstrates bullish sentiment of the market. The Ishimoku cloud confirms the continuation of a climbing movement as it is diverging and directed upwards.

Bollinger Bands:
This indicator shows movement in the sideways as the Bollinger Bands are not expanding and directed sideways. That is why now forming of false signals by Ishimoku is also possible, and before the confirmation of every signal and before the beginning of the bands’ divergence it is not advised to trade.

MACD:

This indicator is directed upwards showing the current ascend within the sideways channel. So currently trading is not recommended. In case of a trend move starting it is advised to open long trades only when the MACD is directed upside.
Trading recommendations:
EUR/USD is in the sideways and long trade can be opened only in case the Bollinger Bands start to diverge. Then the target will be the first resistance level 1.4705, and if this level is passed – 1.5013. Stop loss should be placed below 1.4295. Also for starting long trade the MACD should be directed upwards.

 

The chart annotation:
Ishimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with the white bars in the indicators window.


 

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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