Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, but it is evident that the upward trend in the pair continues. The bearish reaction to today's data from Japan quickly subsided, maintaining good chances for further USD appreciation against the yen. This is definitely supported by positive consumer confidence statistics from the US, as well as hawkish statements from Fed representative Michelle Bowman and FOMC member Lisa D. Cook. Hints at maintaining high interest rates and further inflation fighting could trigger a new wave of pair purchases. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Signal to Buy

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 159.55 (green line on the chart) with a target towards 160.04 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 160.04, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expectations for the pair's growth today are based on the continuation of the upward trend, but only after very strong data from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.30, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal upward in the market. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 159.55 and 160.04.

Signal to Sell

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it updates to the level of 159.30 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 158.72, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if there is an unsuccessful attempt to reach the daily maximum and weak statistics from the US. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.55, at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward in the market. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 159.30 and 158.72.

What is on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – target price where you can place Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – target price where you can place Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in exchange rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.