 The recovery of the U.S. economy on Friday has a litmus test in its most sensitive variable: the creation of jobs during the month of January.
According to previous estimates, is expected to have generated about 150,000 jobs last month, a figure much lower than in December, which in any case is subject to revision.
This fact remains, despite its ups and downs, the most important of the month, and takes effect during the coming weeks. The rate of unemployment, which President Obama obsessively fixed his attention, for re-election in November, would be unchanged at 8.5%. Both reports will be published as usual, at 8:30 Eastern.
At 10:00 ISM services will be announced, which could increase this month strongly compared to the previous measurement, endorsing a good number of jobs created, if this indeed is confirmed.
In any case, as we repeat every month, it is always best to wait until the effects dissipate jobs data and the different currency pairs take a definite trend, before entering the market. This type of data often leads to sudden movements in prices, which leveraged markets can have a devastating effect.
Remember this is a market, not a game of chance, and win in the marketplace responds to a good analysis of it, many hours of work, and not a simple riddle of who is right price direction at a given time.
Averaging the European session on Friday, major indexes of the old continent operate with gains of 0.3% on average, while Dow Jones futures show an uptrend in the short term. The same could be confirmed if the data of U.S. employment is positive.
As for currencies, have no relevant movements, as usual in the hours leading up to major reports. The major pairs’ prices have hardly changed since the close of U.S. session on Thursday, and is not expected to change until publication of the jobs report.
To take into account: the Swiss National Bank said, as did the Bank of Japan, who will defend the exchange rate of the franc to 1.20 against the euro as often as necessary. In other words, is imminent intervention of the franc against the euro, and therefore against the dollar. On the side of the BoJ, the situation is similar, and a movement towards 75.55 yen alarms turn ON the intervention. The exchange rate EUR / CHF is 1.2047 at the time, just a few points above the barrier set by the SNB.
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Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
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