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16.03.2012 02:12 PM
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for March 16, 2012

4H

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General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY market for March 16, it is evident that in the course of the yesterdays deals the price rebounded from the second resistance level and declined to the first resistance level indicating a current correction. The current signal for Buy-deals is confirmed as Chinkou Span is located above the price chart and the price is fixed above the Ichimoku Cloud. Thus, the target for the ascending movement is seen at the second resistance level 83.94. In case it has been overcome, the third resistance level 85.24 will be considered as the next target. The upward movement will remain relevant as long as the price is higher than the Kijun-Sen (83.05). In case the price is fixed below this line, the further elaboration of the signal for Buy-deals will be questioned indicating a possible reversal of the price to downwards and a bullish mood on the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands indicates the ascending movement, lines are slightly tightened reflecting the current correction and directed upwards. Thus, long positions are considered as relevant. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current descending movement. Therefore, it is recommended to refrain from opening the long positions until the MACD reverses to upside providing the signal for bullish trade.

 

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/JPY market it is recommended to consider Buy-positions with target seen at the 83.94 level. In case this level is passed through, the point 85.24 will be considered as the next target. Stop Loss is to be placed below the point 83.05. As the price goes higher, Stop Loss can be replaced upside. If the MACD reverses to upwards, it will be possible to open the long positions. If the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, the Stop Loss can be placed to the non-loss area. Take Profits are be placed approximately at levels 83.85 and 8510.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


 

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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