The spot rate bounced off to the lower limit of its medium term bullish channel at 1.5770 and tests now the intermediate resistance of this one at 1.5910 suggesting a decline. However, a break of these levels will free a large potential and reach the upper limit of its channel at 1.6030.

Technical indicators provide buy signals but approach an overbuy zone and until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement. Furthermore, spot rate evolves at the level of the superior band supporting the assumption of a violent movement in case of failure.

As the spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its channel, we recommend 2 scenarios: the first one is the hypothesis of a decline where we auggest a sell at the level of 1.5910 with the 1st objective at 1.5850 and then at 1.5830. A breakthrough of 1.5930 will invalidate this scenario. The second scenario is a break of its resistance where we advise a “buy stop” which means buying the spot rate as soon as it is broken through its resistance of 1.5910 with the 1st objective at 1.5970 and then at 1.5990. A breakthrough of 1.5890 will invalidate this scenario.