For the last trading day,he euro / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 35 points, and formed a correction in the short-term ascending channel. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that there was a breakthrough at the existing stagnation in the range of 1.1300 / 1.1325, which was formed as a result of correction. This is attributed to the phase of the short-term ascending channel, of April 2 - see the graph. The news background had statistics on industrial production in the United States, where they expect a decline from 3.6% to 3.2%. However, as a result, they received a stronger decrease, right up to 2.8%. How did the market react to this news? The dollar continued to strengthen despite all the logic, and why is that so? A bit earlier, there were rumors from an anonymous source that several representatives of the ECB questioned the regulator's forecasts. Accordingly, the recovery of the eurozone economy is expected in the second half of 2019. They believe that they are too optimistic for the current situation, given the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the continuing uncertainty with Brexit and the trade conflict with the United States. Reuters, who launched this very noise, changed the interest of the market, and the state statistics that came out later was in the background.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on eurozone inflation, where we expect a decline from 1.5% to 1.4%.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that there is a pulse train. It may have come to us from state industrial production statistics, which was not played yesterday. It is likely to assume that the quote will be in front of the periodic resistance in the face of a local maximum of 1.1325 (April 12), reflecting also the Fibo 38.2 level. Traders are now carefully analyzing fixation points. As in the case of fixation higher than 1.1325, the upward move may continue.
Based on the data available, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in case of a clear price fixing higher than 1.1325 (not a puncture).
- Positions for sale are discussed below the recent correction of 1.1278, for catching the main move.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short, intraday and medium term there is an upward interest against the general background.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation , based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(April 17, was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 44 points. Although volatility remains low, there are already prerequisites for improvement. If the local maximum of 1.1325 falls, it is possible to expect acceleration.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1180; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level
