4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 45.7560

The euro currency paired with the US dollar is making another attempt to start the formation of an upward trend. The latest news from the US was related to the failed macroeconomic statistics, as well as Trump's introduction of new trade duties against China and Mexico. If everything is clear with China, Mexico fell under the hot hand of Trump because of the flow of illegal immigrants to the United States. Trump's ideas to build a wall on the border with Mexico were not to come true since Congress did not approve the allocation of almost 6 billion dollars for this project. The US leader introduced a state of emergency at the border and decided to solve the problems in the usual way. That is, the introduction of trade duties, which will be canceled if Mexico begins to work on deterring immigrants. Thus, so far, the duties are 5% but will increase with each month by another 5% until they reach the level of 25%. As we wrote earlier, trade wars unleashed by Trump do not have a negative impact on the dollar. We believe that the strengthening of the euro was caused by the desire of bears to fix profits at the end of the month on dollar positions. In the near future, it is very likely to resume the downward trend, despite the fact that at the moment the euro/dollar pair has fixed above the moving average. If you look closely at the illustration, you can clearly see that each next maximum price is lower than the previous one. The same can be seen on the 24-hour timeframe.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1169

S2 – 1.1139

S3 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1200

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1261

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has overcome the moving. Thus, long positions with the target of 1.1200 are relevant, but it is recommended to consider long positions only in small volumes and very carefully since both channels of linear regression are directed downwards.

It is recommended to sell the euro after the bears return the initiative to their hands and there will be a consolidation under the moving average line with the targets of 1.1139 and 1.1108.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.