4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 28p - 26p - 62p - 41p - 37p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 39p (48p).

As we expected in the morning, the first trading day of the week was boring and uninteresting, since no important macroeconomic events have been scheduled to be released. Tomorrow, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold another speech and several important reports will be published in the United States. Today, volatility continues to decline, as well as its average for 5 days, despite the fact that the past week was filled with various important events. As we all see, despite the fact that the issue of a Fed rate cut has almost been resolved, traders are in no hurry to get rid of the US dollar. We warned that this could happen, because, despite the Fed's willingness to lower the key rate, it will still remain higher than that of the European Union. Especially since the ECB meeting will take place first, on July 25, and the key rate may also be lowered at it. Thus, in Europe it may become negative, and the US currency may rise in price even more. Moreover, they can revive the quantitative easing program in the European Union, since they believe that the economy needs support again. What do we have in the bottom line? Only the fact that even if the Fed lowers the rate on July 30-31, this will not have a very strong effect on the balance of power between the euro and the dollar. Accordingly, we can count on the resumption of a downward trend. At the moment, bulls can not even overcome the Ichimoku cloud. Once again, traders see no reason to buy the European currency.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be adjusted, breaking the Kijun-Sen line. Thus, purchases with a target of 1.1306 are formally relevant, but the MACD indicator may turn down on the current candlestick.

It is recommended to sell the euro/dollar again not earlier than when the price has been consolidated below the critical line with targets at 1,1227 and 1.1213. In this case, the initiative will return to the hands of bears.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.