EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling, performed consolidation under the correction level of 23.6% (1.1110) on the new grid of Fibo levels, closing under the upward trend channel and falling to the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.1066). The rebound of the pair quotes from this level allows traders to expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 23.6%, however, the exit from the trend channel indicates a change of sentiment among traders to "bearish". Therefore, it is more likely to close below the level of 38.2% today or after a short pause and a pullback to the top and the continuation of the fall of the euro/dollar pair.
While the US dollar regains the confidence of traders after a few weeks' pauses, the whole world is engulfed in a debate. The topics of the upcoming parliamentary elections are being discussed, the US presidential election is being discussed, although there is still a whole year before them. Why does the public care so much? With the elections in the UK, everything is relatively clear. The future of the country depends on their results, in what way it can leave the European Union and whether it will leave it at all. The future of Scotland also depends on the outcome of the parliamentary elections, which does not want to leave the European Union together with Britain and intends to hold its referendum on independence.
But in the case of the US presidential election in 2020, the situation is much more complicated. According to the results of sociological research, if the US elections were held today, Donald Trump would lose to any of the five possible candidates from the Democratic Party. About 56% of voters would vote for Joe Biden, who is the most likely Democratic presidential candidate. However, as in the case of Great Britain, where it does not matter what rating a particular political party has, states vote in America. That is, the rating of a presidential candidate may be more than 50%, but if most states vote for another candidate, then he will become the country's president. One point speaks against Trump's victory in the next election – the trade war with China, which has already led to a slowdown in the world economy, as well as the economies of the United States and China. In the near future, the parties may sign the first agreement on trade terms, but this is not a fait accompli. Since duties have been imposed on many goods from China, that is, they have risen in price for the population, the electorate shifts its attention to the Democrats. Although, on the other hand, in the coming year before the election, Trump may still have time to end the war with China, respectively, this negative factor for him can be removed. The most important question: is the second term of President Trump profitable for the US dollar? Given how much the American currency has risen in the first term of Trump – yes, given Trump's eternal desire to cheapen the dollar – no. In principle, for the dollar, it does not matter who will be the president, the country's economy and its condition are important.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
On November 6, traders will attempt to consolidate under the correction level of 38.2% (1.1066). If they succeed, the fall in the pair's quotes will continue in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1029), which almost coincides with the low level of August 1. This is quite a strong level, the probability of its working out is very high. Thus, the pair can be sold for this purpose at the close under 1.1066. I would not recommend buying a pair after exiting an upward trend channel.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of October 1, 2019, and October 21, 2019.
