EUR/USD 1H
The EUR/USD pair quickly corrected to the 1.1544 level on the hourly timeframe on July 23, which was previously a resistance and now a support. A rebound from this level provoked the expected resumption of the upward movement and by the end of the day the pair practically reached the next resistance level of 1.1631. Thus, bulls continue to dominate the market, and the fact that the price is above the rising channel suggests that the upward buying sentiment is not weakening at all. Thus, since the first target has already been reached, buyers need to gain a foothold above it in order for the upward trend to continue on the last trading day of the week. The bears can not do anything. In order for them to have chances for a more or less tangible downward movement, they need to consolidate below the Kijun-sen line.
EUR/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are directed upwards on the 15-minute timeframe, signaling an upward trend in the most short-term plan and no signs of an incipient trend change. The latest Commitments of traders (COT) report clearly showed that the market's bullish mood persists. Professional market players continue to actively buy the European currency. In other words, we can conclude that the aggregate demand for the euro is growing, while the US dollar is declining. Since it is obvious that the trend is formed by large traders, especially those who enter the market for profit (the non-commercial category), their mood is an extremely important factor for ordinary traders. Therefore, given that the euro continued to grow this week, the next COT report, which will be released today, will be designed to answer the question whether the pressure of professional buyers on the currency pair has increased even more? If so, then we can expect the upward movement to continue in the medium term.
The fundamental backdrop for the EUR/USD pair was extremely upbeat on Thursday. First, it became known that the European Parliament could block the draft budget for 2021-2027, if appropriate adjustments are not made to it. Simply put, the European Parliament is not ready to approve the current version of the budget, considering that it is too small and lacks certain categories of investments. After it became known that US President Donald Trump was sending special forces to the cities of the country to suppress rallies and protests in the United States. First of all, this applies to the states and cities that the Democrats rule. The head of the European Parliament David Sassoli commented on the projects of the budget and the restoration fund: "We consider the agreement on the recovery plan satisfactory, and the multi-year financial plan needs some adjustments". According to Sassoli, a meeting will be held today, at which the presidents of the European Council and the European Commission will speak. The budget agreement needs a discussion between three European institutions: the Parliament, the European Commission and the leadership of the European Council," Sassoli stressed. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she did not regret the concessions at the summit (reducing the amount of grants for the most affected countries from 500 billion to 390) and spoke positively about the European Union, emphasizing the readiness of all countries to make compromises in difficult times of the pandemic. But the head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde believes that the deal could be better. "The agreement could have been better, but this is a very ambitious project," Lagarde said, noting that it was not worth reducing the amount of grants by increasing loans.
Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for July 24:
1) Buyers continue to dominate the market. Long positions remain relevant with the target of the resistance level 1.1688. Thus, it is either worthwhile to continue buying the pair with a Stop Loss below the Kijun-sen or at the discretion of traders, to open new longs with the target of 1.1688 after breaking the level of 1.1631. You can also open new longs on an upward signal of some fast indicator, like Heiken Ashi. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 60 points.
2) Bears are still resting and waiting for buyers to give them a chance to seize the initiative in the market. Sellers are still not strong enough to form a new downward trend. Thus, they can only wait until the price is consolidated at least below the Kijun-sen line. In this case, you can try to sell the pair while aiming for the lower line of the ascending channel. More serious prospects will open below the rising channel. In this case, the potential Take Profit is up to 80 points.
