Forex Analysis & Reviews: 31.05.2022 - Inflation in Germany and...

31.05.2022 12:21 PM

Inflation in Germany and France reaches record levels

US equities started the trading week with a drop in prices on the back of another oil rally. This added to concerns about how aggressive central banks need to be to curb inflation without consequences.

The European Stoxx50 index fell yesterday, after a strong three-day rally last week. Tech stocks were the biggest losers, however.

Rising treasury yields were driven by a sell-off in German and European bonds on Monday. Inflation in Germany has hit record levels, adding to the pressure on central bank policymakers to tame rising prices.

French inflation accelerated to another all-time high, heaping pressure on the European Central Bank to lift interest rates more aggressively after strong readings in Germany and Spain. ECB officials are set to announce the end of large-scale asset purchases and confirm plans to raise interest rates in July for the first time in more than a decade.

Technology stocks in Asia supported gains in Hong Kong, while Chinese tech stocks rose as data showed manufacturing activity declined at a slower pace and Shanghai eased its Covid lockdown.

In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he wanted to keep raising interest rates in half-percentage point steps until inflation was easing back toward the US central bank's goal.

Meanwhile, President Biden will hold a rare meeting on Tuesday with Fed Chair Powell amid the highest inflation in decades and ahead of US payroll numbers later this week.

"The Fed's tightening cycle will be longer, and policy rates and bond yields will have to go higher than markets currently expect," Sonal Desai, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, said in a note. "The corresponding risk to asset prices and economic growth is greater than many like to admit," she added.

Brent crude surged above $120 per barrel, while WTI climbed to $118 following the European Union agreeing to impose a partial ban on Russian oil in response to war in Ukraine.

Higher energy and food prices continue to put increased pressure on global prices and consumers.Here are some key events to watch this week:

Euro zone CPI Tuesday
The Federal Reserve is set to start shrinking its US$8.9 trillion balance sheet Wednesday
The Fed releases its Beige Book report on regional economic conditions Wednesday
New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speak at separate events Wednesday
OPEC+ virtual meeting Wednesday
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester discusses the economic outlook Thursday
US May employment report Friday
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization releases its monthly food price index at a time of maximum concern about global supplies on Friday

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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