GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair also showed multidirectional movements on Thursday, but it still had a downward bias to a greater extent than that of the euro/dollar. Naturally, the pound also updated its 2-year lows and is 50 points closer to updating its absolute lows, which, recall, are located around 1.1400. What provoked a new fall in the British currency? Nothing, because there were no important reports or events in the US and the UK on Thursday. Thus, the market continues to get rid of risky assets and currencies simply on the basis of negative fundamental and geopolitical backgrounds. Moreover, the fundamental background for the pound is not so bad, since statistics from Great Britain often comes better than from the United States, and the Bank of England regularly raises the key rate. Thus, sometimes we are even surprised by the next fall of the British currency, since it has much less reason to fall than the euro.

As for trading signals, they can be divided into two parts. Two strong signals were formed at the European trading session, four false ones at the US session. The first two signals were for shorts - the price bounced off the extreme level of 1.1874 and eventually fell to the level of 1.1807 and even below it. However, the short position should have been closed when the price settled above 1.1807, so the profit was only 48 points. A long position, which should have been opened on the same signal, did not bring profit, as the pair managed to move up only 27 points. But there could not have been a loss on this deal either, since it was closed by Stop Loss at breakeven. The last two signals were formed too late in time, and even after two false signals near the level of 1.1807, they should not have been worked out.

COT report:

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report again showed insignificant changes. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 4,400 long positions and 7,500 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,100. But what does it matter if the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above? And the pound, in spite of everything, still cannot show even a tangible upward correction? The net position fell for three months, then grew for several weeks, but what's the difference if the British currency is still depreciating? We have already said that the COT reports do not take into account the demand for the dollar, which is probably still very high right now. Therefore, even for the strengthening of the British currency, the demand for it must grow faster and stronger than the demand for the dollar. The non-commercial group now has a total of 96,000 shorts open and only 39,000 longs. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures. Neither macroeconomic statistics nor fundamental events support the UK currency. As before, we can only count on corrective growth, but we believe that in the medium term, the pound will continue to fall.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. July 15. Europe is preparing for a cold winter.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. July 15. Rishi Sunak is the favorite in the race for the post of British prime minister.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on July 15. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

GBP/USD 1H

The pound as a whole continues to fall almost every day. From time to time, unconvincing upward corrections begin, but the price cannot settle even above the descending trend line. The bad thing is that in recent days we have seen "swings", which greatly complicate the trading process. Without overcoming the trend line, it is still very difficult to count on a significant increase in the British currency. We highlight the following important levels for July 15: 1.1807, 1.1874, 1.1974, 1.2106, 1.2175. The Senkou Span B (1.1997) and Kijun-sen (1.1897) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. No major events are scheduled for Friday in the UK, and there will be a few less significant publications in the US. We believe that it is possible to pay attention to US reports, but both major pairs are already trading volatilely, and even on a "swing", so they clearly do not need the help of statistics.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.