Favorable economic forecasts continue to come true, saturating markets with liquidity. November was disappointing for investors, but brought the first rays of hope for the bright future. Due to a number of circumstances, December turned out to be a full-fledged bullish driver of financial markets.
It's no secret that the world economy is undergoing one of the largest recessions in its history. Inflationary pressures are starting to eat away at currencies, and central banks are trying to reduce liquidity flows to tame inflation.
The key central bank for the global economy in 2022 was the U.S. Federal Reserve. The powerful aggressive policy of quantitative easing and key rate hikes had a negative impact on global markets.
In December 2022, there was a turning point in the fight against rising inflation. The index fell to 7.1% y/y against expectations of 7.3%. The data confirm the successful policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Inflation declined at a strong pace for the second month, giving investors something to look forward to as the year goes on.
The cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin, which are heavily tied to Fed policy, also breathed a sigh of relief. The major cryptocurrency reached $18,000, busting symmetrical triangle patterns that had been forming with low volumes and low investor activity.
Bitcoin and the stock market
After the CPI was published, the stock market experienced the largest reversal in 15 years. CNBC believes that a large-scale reversal will be followed by a serious upward movement.
Most likely, a similar bullish dynamics should be expected on cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin. After a long consolidation, the asset broke out of the $15,600-$17,400 range. The way to $20,000 is open, but the presence of a strong uptrend should be confirmed.
Fed policy
A key factor for Bitcoin's possible rally to $20,000 could be the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. Markets anticipate a slowdown in the rate hike to 50 bps. This would be a positive signal that there are major victories in the fight against inflation.
We should also expect increased volatility due to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech afterwards. We dare to assume that Powell will disclose the first tentative timing of refusing to raise the key rate. A favorable forecast is the end of aggressive monetary policy in spring 2023.
Analysis of BTC/USD
Investors had time to rejoice at Bitcoin's seemingly successful exit beyond the $15,600-$17,400 range. The cryptocurrency really managed to hit $18,000, despite the fierce resistance of sellers. However, don't think that the battle for $18,000 is over.
Over the next few days, Bitcoin should keep the $17,700-$18,000 range intact to continue its upward movement. In addition, BTC's on-chain metrics should remain bullish. In the absence of positive dynamics on key metrics, the current growth should be perceived with skepticism.
Technical metrics of the cryptocurrency indicate that the upward dynamics of the price movement remains. Bullish sentiment is growing and is becoming long-term in nature. Glassnode analysts note that a record number of Bitcoins are in the hands of long-term investors.
Results
Despite positive news and growing enthusiasm, the situation in the cryptocurrency market is far from stable. Uncertainty with Genesis and Gemini, as well as a number of mining companies persists. Also, the CEO of Binance has addressed his employees with the message that the coming months could be difficult.
With that in mind, one should not expect a serious and prolonged upward movement from Bitcoin. The main catalyst for growth in BTC/USD quotes turn out to be news, while buying activity remains at a low level. This means that Bitcoin needs a period of prolonged consolidation, not impulsive growth.
