Over the past three months, we have seen a bullish rally in Bitcoin of almost 100%. Investor sentiment is gradually changing to confidently bullish, and the main question is when BTC will break the next resistance level.

Over the past month, Bitcoin managed to form a strong support line near the $28.5k level. Also, the asset has updated its local high above $30.5k and continues its upward movement. Bitcoin will likely continue its upward movement and update the local high above $31k.

Fundamental background

Bitcoin managed to return to the top 10 assets by market capitalization thanks to a strong bullish move. Despite this, the asset maintains correlation with equity assets, primarily the SPX. The level of correlation of the two instruments is still above 80%.

The main catalyst for the growth of Bitcoin quotes and other high-risk assets was a decline in inflation and a local stimulus for the banking system from the Fed. Due to the combination of these factors in the futures market, expectations of no rate hike in May have increased.

However, Wall Street Journal reports that the Fed will no give up raising its key rate in May, despite inflation falling to a two-year low. Also, the regulator understands the recession risks, but doesn't plan to change its monetary policy.

BTC/USD Analysis

Over the past two days, the crypto market capitalization has grown by more than 7% and reached $1.29 trillion. Despite this, the volume of investments in crypto and blockchain projects in the first quarter of 2023 amounted to only $2.4 billion, the lowest figure since Q4 2020.

However, there is every reason to believe that the situation will seriously improve in the second quarter due to the next stage of Bitcoin's bullish rally. The first signals of an altcoin rally are emerging in the market, and Ethereum's successful update marked the first stage of the rest of the crypto market's rally.

Bitcoin's dominance level is still above the 45% mark, but we have seen a downward trend over the past two days. This suggests that more and more investments are coming into alternative cryptocurrencies, primarily ETH, ADA and SOL.

Technically, Bitcoin continues to show the potential to reach the $31k level. On the daily chart of the asset, the RSI index resumed upward movement above the 70 mark, and another bullish crossover has formed on the stochastic.

At the same time, the MACD also continues its upward movement, which confirms the bullish mood of the market. Questions are raised by stochastic, which has formed two local impulses over the past three days. This may indicate that the bullish potential within the current upward movement is gradually decreasing.

However, BTC/USD is able to make the final push and update the local high. As of writing, the cryptocurrency is near the $30.9k level, and will try to make a bullish breakout of the $31k psychological mark. This will be the final chord of the current bullish movement, as the asset is approaching local overheating in all respects.

Results

Bitcoin managed to update the local high within the current stage of the bullish movement. Buying volumes gradually decrease when bullish impulses are realized, which indicates a decrease in the upward potential. Despite this, BTC is able to conquer the $31k–$32k level, and then proceed to a recovery correction.