Forex Analysis & Reviews: 21.09.2023 - EUR/USD. Analysis for...

21.09.2023 05:53 PM

EUR/USD. Analysis for September 21st. The Fed left the rate unchanged, and the euro is preparing for a corrective wave

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair remains quite clear. Over the past year, we have seen only three wave structures that constantly alternate with each other. For the last few months, I have regularly mentioned that I expect the pair to be around the 5th figure, where the construction of the last upward three-wave structure began. The pair has yet to reach the 5th figure, but it has come very close to the 6th. The next ascending three-wave structure is complete, so the market continues to build a downward trend.

The recent increase in quotes does not resemble a full-fledged wave 2 or b. We saw a similar wave from August 3rd to August 10th. Most likely, this is an internal corrective wave 1 or a. If this is the case, the decline in quotes may continue for some time within the framework of the first wave of the descending trend. And this will not be the end of the decline of the European currency, as the construction of the third wave is still required. Five internal waves are already visible within the first wave, so its completion is approaching. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0637 mark, equivalent to 100.0% on the Fibonacci scale, indicates readiness for constructing a corrective wave.

The FOMC moderately supported the US dollar.

The euro/dollar pair's exchange rate hardly changed on Thursday. All the most interesting movements occurred yesterday evening, and today, we enjoyed only the leftovers after the feast. Demand for the US dollar sharply increased Wednesday evening, and the pair returned to 100.0% on the Fibonacci scale. However, the second attempt to break through was also unsuccessful, making us increasingly expect wave 2 or b construction. Moreover, today, the Bank of England left the rate unchanged, and the British pound fell again, but now it may take a break, as all the bearish factors have already been played out.

In general, the results of the FOMC meeting (as well as the results of the ECB meeting last week) could not influence the wave pattern. For two months now, we have been observing the construction of a bearish wave, which does not belong to an upward trend. One wave cannot be independent. Therefore, at least one more wave down should be built, and the European currency may significantly decline by the end of the year. How the increase in the ECB rate and the pause from the Fed will affect this scenario? Very little. Both central banks are ready to end the process of tightening monetary policy, and it no longer matters when it will be completed in both cases. The US and the European Central Bank currently desire to raise rates by more than 25 basis points. An unsuccessful attempt to break through 1.0636 suggests that the completion of the presumed wave 2 or b is the most likely scenario. At least until a successful attempt to break through 1.0636 is made.

On a larger wave scale, the wave analysis of the ascending trend has taken on an extended form but is likely to be completed. We have seen five upward waves, most likely representing the structure a-b-c-d-e. Then, the pair built four three-wave structures: two downward and two upward. It has entered the stage of building another three-wave descending structure.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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Wave analysis

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