Today is a holiday in Europe. Major data on Japan and China that was published today were lower than forecast. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index in Q1 in Japan was -8 against forecast for -7. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index was 6 vs. expectations for 8. PMI Manufacturing in China in March was 50.9 vs. 51.6. Amid the news the dollar strengthened.

Positive data is expected from the US. At 17:00 GMT+4 data on Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI final figures is 55.0 vs. 54.9. At 18:00 GMT+4 Manufacturing ISM report in March is released. It is forecast to be flat, 54.2. US Construction Spending in February is revealed at 18:00 GMT+4 and it is expected to be 1.1% against -2.1% in January.

Technically, we expect the price will develop in the range 1.2750 to 1.2845 (the low of March 27, the resistance of trendline on the H4) with the gap's closure.