4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -43.5119

If the euro rose sharply and strongly yesterday against the US currency against the background of weak statistics from the US, the pound simply began a slight correction. This once again points to the fact that traders do not want to buy the British currency now, even when there are grounds for this, and the main topic of interest to the Forex market is Brexit. Even today, the whole world will follow the speech of Theresa May, who after a meeting with Graham Brady, Chairman of the Committee "1922", said that on May 24, she will announce the date of her resignation. We believe that today is full of surprises. May could have resigned 5 times already, but each time she stayed to finish what she had begun (Brexit). Therefore, it is quite possible today that May will announce the need to complete Brexit after all and that "she will fight to the end." For the pound, this will be disappointing news. But the specific date of the resignation of Theresa May, who, as it is already clear to everyone, did not cope with Brexit, can fill the markets with optimism and push the pound upward. In addition, in the UK, a report on retail sales for April will be published today, which predicts a decline in the growth rate of this indicator, and even a reduction (in monthly terms). Thus, the dynamics of the pound today will depend on the nature of the fundamental data.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2634

S2 – 1.2573

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2695

R2 – 1.2756

R3 – 1.2817

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a weak upward correction. Thus, it is recommended to wait for its completion, and then resume the sale of the pound with the targets at 1.2634 and 1.2573.

It is recommended to consider long positions after the consolidation of the pair above the moving average with the targets at 1.2817 and 1.2878. However, at the moment, the position of the bulls are still extremely weak.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.