EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded extremely calmly during the second trading day of the week. The euphoria after last week's Federal Reserve meeting has passed and now the usual everyday life has returned. Remember that the pair, until last Wednesday, in most cases passed 40-50 points a day. There were no major publications and no major fundamental events on Tuesday. Only late in the evening did Fed Chairman Jerome Powell make a speech, which we do not even consider, since it was simply impossible to predict its outcome, and during his speech all the trades of the day should have already been closed. However, in any case, traders did not open a single trade deal during the day. Because there were no signals generated on Tuesday. Due to very low volatility, the pair traded all day without approaching important levels and lines. Thus, we can now say that the downward movement of the euro/dollar pair has stopped and its succeeding prospects are very vague. However, in our fundamental articles, we said that, in principle, falling to the level of 1.1700 or slightly lower is possible in the coming weeks as part of a global correction.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 24. The euro has stopped falling, but is in no hurry to recover. There was little hope for Christine Lagarde's speech.
EUR/USD 1H
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating on the hourly timeframe after a strong fall last week. At this time, even the lines of the Ichimoku indicator are located too far from the price, so it simply does not approach them. There is still no trend line or channel to support the downward trend. Thus, the trend seems to be there, but it can end at any moment, or a strong downward movement can resume. Be careful! On Wednesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1800, 1.1851, 1.1924, 1.1950 and 1.198, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2053) and Kijun-sen (1.1985) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Quite a lot of various macroeconomic publications and fundamental events are scheduled for the third trading day of the week. Indexes of business activity in the service and manufacturing sectors will be published in the United States and the European Union. In addition, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will deliver speeches during the day. However, most likely, all these events will not find any reflection on the pair's charts. The problem is that the markets are well aware of the rhetoric of the ECB representatives, which has been almost always the same lately. Now no one expects any changes in monetary policy. Nobody expects even any hints from the ECB representatives about these changes. Thus, it is unlikely that de Guindos and Lagarde will surprise the markets with anything. The same applies to business activity indices, which are at such values, from which it is necessary to fall for a very long time, and any new growth will not impress traders, since these indicators are already very high.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 70 points during the last reporting week (June 8-14). The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that bullish sentiment has slightly weakened among the major players, but these slight changes in the latest reports do not affect the overall picture of the state of affairs in any way. For example, the first indicator in the chart above continues to indicate a bullish trend and the fact that non-commercial traders continue to build long positions over the medium term. Of course, the last three trading days were not included in the last COT report, so it would be better to draw a conclusion after the next report. Nevertheless, based on the information that we already have at our disposal, we cannot conclude that professional traders have begun to look towards selling the euro. In addition, it should be noted that the new COT report was not released on Friday, therefore, it should be expected a little later. Perhaps it will show a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, but so far we don't have such information. Accordingly, you need to wait for the new COT report and see what information it contains. So far, we note that the total number of open Buy-contracts (longs) for non-commercial traders is twice the total number of Sell-contracts (shorts). The green and red lines of the first indicator move away from each other, and the histogram of the second indicator rises. All this speaks, at least, of the preservation of the bullish mood.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
