Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 145.85 price occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly moved down from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of this level occurred when the MACD was recovering from the oversold area, allowing the realization of Scenario #2 for buying the dollar, resulting in the pair rising by more than 50 points. In the second half of the day, data on the number of initial jobless claims and changes in wholesale inventories are expected. The speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin will play a certain role in determining the dollar's direction, so his interview is worth listening to. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 146.49 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 147.49 (thicker green line on the chart). At the point of 147.49, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level. A strong rise in the pair is possible today, but it requires new dovish rhetoric from central bank representatives. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 145.85 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the levels of 146.49 and 147.49 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 145.85 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 144.84, where I will exit the sell positions and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level. The pressure on the pair will return in the case of weak US statistics. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 146.49 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the levels of 145.85 and 144.84 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: The assumed price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: The assumed price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the zones of overbought and oversold.

Important Note: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are generally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.