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28.06.2024 05:47 PM
Analysis of EUR/USD pair on June 28th. The euro remains in sideways movement
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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Currently, we observe the formation of the presumed wave 3 within wave 3 or c of the bearish part of the trend. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed near the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should end lower, even if it takes a non-impulsive form.

The level of 1.0450 is only a target for the third wave. If the current bearish trend segment takes on an impulsive form, we can expect five waves, and the euro could decline below the 1.0000 mark. Certainly, it isn't easy to anticipate such developments, but there have been enough surprises in the currency market in recent years.

As an alternative scenario, I now see the transformation of wave 3 or C into a corrective pattern with five waves labeled as a-b-c-d-e. Even in this case, wave 3 or C should be below the low of wave 1 or A. Therefore, if the formation of wave e in 3 or C has started now, rather than wave 3 in 3 or C, the decline in the pair should continue.

The corrective period continues.

The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased by 5 basis points. By the end of the day, changes could be quite different, both in favor of the dollar and the euro. However, these movements do not negate the fact that the pair has been on a sideways trend for more than a week. To verify the accuracy of these statements, one only needs to look at the shorter-term charts. On these charts, we see something resembling a contracting triangle, and a resolution seems near. This week, the news background was very weak; even the reports on GDP and durable goods orders in the US had very little impact on the pair's exchange rate. However, next week, the news background will be very important and significant for the market, as it is the first week of the month, meaning that data on the ISM business activity and the labor market will be released in America. It seems that everything will be decided next week: whether the construction of the downward wave will continue or if we will see a more complex corrective structure.

At the moment, I do not see any signs of the downward trend ending. This week, the pair constantly changed direction but overall moved horizontally. The US dollar needs strong statistics from the US, and I think it will get them. I would like to remind you that in the past few months, many reports from America have been weaker than market expectations, but this cannot happen every month. In any case, the downward structure maintains its integrity.

General Conclusions:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the formation of the downward set of waves continues. In the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of the downward wave 3 or c with a significant decline in the pair. I consider only sales with targets around the estimated level of 1.0462. The internal wave structure of wave 3 or c may take a five-wave corrective form, but even in this case, the quotes should drop to 4-5 figures.

On the larger wave scale, it is evident that the supposed wave 2 or b, which in length made up more than 76.4% according to Fibonacci of the first wave, may therefore be complete. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario involving the formation of wave 3 or c and the decline of the pair below the 4th figure continues to unfold.

The main principles of my analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to changes.
  2. If you are unsure about what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Remember to use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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