Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The first test of the 1.0877 price level happened when the MACD indicator had significantly moved down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell and decided to wait for another test of 1.0877 to implement scenario #2 for buying. After a short period, this test occurred, and it coincided with the MACD recovery from the oversold area, which seemed like a suitable option for entering the market. However, the pair didn't rise, resulting in a loss. During the US session, apart from the existing home sales volume and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, there is nothing else scheduled, so all attention will be focused on these indicators. Weak statistics will allow euro buyers to return to the market, while strong data will continue to drive the pair lower. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0877 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.0894 level. At 1.0894, I will exit the market and sell the euro, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward movement of the euro is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.0856 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal in the market. We can expect a rise to the levels of 1.0877 and 1.0894.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0856 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0834 level. I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro, expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if the US data fails to meet expectations. Important! Before selling, please ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: Today, I plan to sell the euro if the price tests the 1.0877 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the levels of 1.0856 and 1.0834.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line: The expected price where you can set a Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line: The expected price where you can set a Take Profit or independently lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: Using overbought and oversold zones is important when entering the market.

Important

Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that you need a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above, for successful trading. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.