Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The 154.74 level test occurred when the MACD indicator started its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar, leading to a 30-pip drop in the pair. A similar entry point, but for buying at 155.08, occurred closer to the middle of the U.S. session after it became clear that annual inflation in the U.S. had resumed growth, raising questions about further rate cuts. Against this backdrop, it's better to continue trading in favor of the upward trend, which is unlikely to dissipate soon. The absence of Japanese data and strong U.S. data will drive further growth in USD/JPY. I will primarily focus on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 for intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 156.13 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 156.78 (thicker green line). Around 156.78, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip movement in the opposite direction. Growth in the pair is expected, but buying is best done during corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario 2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 155.58 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposing levels of 156.13 and 156.78 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the price breaks below the 155.58 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.16, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 pip upward movement. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return during the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario 2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.13 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposing levels of 155.58 and 155.16 can be expected.

Chart Indicators:

Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.

Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.

Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.

Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.

MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.