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04.10.2017 12:13 AM
03/10/2017全球宏观一览

03/10/2017全球宏观一览:

澳大利亚储备银行如期保持利率为1.50%不变。在利率决议中,澳央行行长Philip Lowe强调了上个月的路线。因为投资改善对经济前景估计的微小改变被提到。至于澳元,Lowe强调年中升值与通胀和增涨前景有关。引起注意的是为了防止不平衡而对房地产市场宏观审慎监管的不完整。过去澳央行想在不加息的情况下遏制房贷需求。而现在澳央行似乎继续将其注意力转向利率。

在越来越多的迹象显示央行将抛弃极度宽松的货币政策的情况下,澳央行的立场可能会让澳元承压。澳大利亚经济增涨依然和中国经济密切相关,而后者收到基建和地产建设支出增涨的支撑,而高水平的债务依旧是中期的一项风险。中国人和出问题的迹象豆浆极大地影响澳大利亚经济及其货币。

现在让我们来看一下澳元/美元的4小时技术图。空头努力突破了0.7807的技术支撑,但下跌趋势似乎正在失去势头。价格和动量指标有可见的看涨背离,所以市场的反应可能是反弹走向最近的技术阻止位0.7867。

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