Forex Analysis & Reviews: 23.04.2019 - Fundamental Analysis of...

23.04.2019 11:18 AM

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for April 23, 2019

EUR/JPY has been making corrections amid indecisive market sentiment. The price is epected to extend a climb higher in the short term.

The eurozone is facing an economic slowdown. Besides, Brexit is a source of persistent uncertainty. The ZEW economic sentiment survey of Germany, which is a key gauge of investor confidence, revealed a bounce of the index last week which stuck on a negative territory for the past 12 months. The economic sentiment index climbed into positive territory in April 2019. The Eurozone ZEW indicator also surged to 4.5 from -2.5 which is also a strong dynamic. In the last policy meeting, the ECB stated that its main focus would be to ensure the continued consumer inflation slightly below 2% over the medium term. The leading indicator would be important to investors to measure the market sentiment.

Euro area's real Gross Domestic Product rose by 0.2%, in the fourth quarter of 2018, following an increase of 0.1% in Q3. Annual HICP inflation decreased to 1.4% in March 2019 while the manufacturing sector remains feeble due to weak external demand. The annual growth rate of loans to non-financial corporations recovered to 3.7% in February 2019.

Last Week, the Consumer Price Index remained unchanged at 1.4% along with the Core CPI at 0.8%. The French Flash Service PMI also rose from 49.1 to 50.5 while the German Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 44.5 from the expectated 45.2. The main focus for this week will be the Spanish Unemployment rate which is expected to be unchanged at 14.5%.

On the JPY side, today BOJ Core CPI report was published with an uptick to 0.5% as expected from the previous value of 0.4%. The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the key policy rate steady at -0.10% at the nearest policy meeting this week. Ahead of BOJ Outlook report and Monetary Policy Statement, JPY could lose momentum as the domestic economy has been affected by a global slowdown. Besides, the government is going to impose a tax hike to spur consumer spending and retail sales.

Moreover, the Bank of Japan is ready to ramp up stimulus which will include a range of measures if the economy loses momentum. The regulator aims to hit a 2% inflation target. Any further step on this will affect both the domestic economy and the banking system. According to Maeda, if the economy's momentum for achieving its inflation target is threatened, the central bank will ease monetary policy.

Meanwhile, EUR has been weighed down by economic and political issues. JPY is indecisive and shaky as the BOJ chases the inflation target rather than tackles economic challenges. This takes the shine off JPY. So, EUR is holding the upper hand over JPY in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading above 125.50 area under strong impulsive bullish pressure that could lead to further upside momentum. For better confirmation, a daily close above 126.00 is required. If the price manages to break above 126.00 area with a daily close, it is expected to climb higher towards 127.00 and later towards 128.50 resistance area in the future.