empty
31.07.2019 02:07 PM
Analysis of CHF/JPY for July 31, 2019

CHF/JPY has been correcting at the level slightly below 110.00 with a daily close since it had broken below in May 2019 amid impulsive bearish pressure. The price failed to push above it but could not sustain the pressure and led the price below 110.00 area again.

CHF is a safe-haven currency which enjoys demand in the troubled time amid risk aversion. Alternatively, with investors' confidence, the franc will lose value as investors seek higher yielding investments. The ECB monetary policy has an impact on CHF. The ECB is revising interest rates or its Quantitative Easing program, which could influence CHF/JPY. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has limited options for stemming the franc's rise. Interest rates on sight deposit account balances are already negative, although a more negative rate is possible. In addition, SNB efforts to manage the Swiss franc have been criticized. Currency manipulation has become hot politics, particularly in the US where the president has been highly vocal on the subject. In 2017, the Economist magazine ranked Switzerland the world's worst currency manipulator.

The KOF Economic Barometer has increased in July, after the indicator value remained unchanged in the previous month. However, the barometer continues to indicate below-average momentum which indicates that the Swiss economy continues to be feeble. The monthly CPI is pending for this week and expected to decrease from 0.0% to -0.4% while the Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 47.7 to 47.0

On the other hand, in two months, the national sales tax in Japan will be hiked to 10% from 8%. Past increases in the sales tax have proved challenging for the Japanese economy. Japan pushed back projections today for bringing its budget into surplus, in a sign Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government is struggling to rein in massive public debt as the economy comes under increasing pressure. The pushback contains the forecast of achieving a surplus by one year to fiscal 2027, citing a downward revision to its outlook for GDP growth, inflation and tax revenue since its previous projections in January. Japan's debt burden is the industrial world's heaviest, at more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy. Abe has put greater importance on growth to safeguard the fragile economy than fiscal reform. Recently, Japan downgraded its fiscal 2019 real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.3% which affected JPY gains. This fiscal year's budget spending reached a record 101.5 trillion yen ($935.05 billion) including 2 trillion yen in steps to ease a pain from a planned sales tax hike to 10% from the current 8% in October.

Today Japan's Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to 37.8 from the previous figure of 38.7 which was expected to be at 38.5 but Housing Starts rebounded sharply to 0.3% from the previous slump of -8.7% which was expected to be at -2.2%.

TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:

The price settled down at the level slightly below 110.00 with a daily close where the Ascending Triangle pattern was observed while squeezing the price since it dropped towards 107.50 support area in April 2019. Though the price is seen pushing higher, the recent False Break above 110.00 is expected to lead the price lower again towards 107.50. As the price remains below 110.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue. Otherwise, a daily close above 110.00 will lead to a strong counter move of the current bearish bias.

This image is no longer relevant

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
InstaForex Analyst
Start trade
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

歐元貨幣。每週前瞻

未來的一週承諾將會是有趣的一週。市場參與者即將得到幾個關鍵問題的答案。

Chin Zhao 00:06 2025-07-21 UTC+2

XAU/USD。分析與預測。黃金受美元適度疲軟和貿易相關不確定性支撐

今天,黃金交易價格走高,並保持在橫向走勢範圍內。週四晚些時候,聯邦儲備委員會官員Christopher Waller表示,經濟風險上升可能成為降息的理由,他強調央行應考慮早至7月下調基準利率,因為勞動市場顯示出疲軟跡象。

Irina Yanina 19:15 2025-07-18 UTC+2

AUD/USD。分析與預測

今天,澳元兌美元(AUD/USD)匯率升破了重要的心理關口0.6500,試圖確認其近期的正面動能。 澳元上漲的主要驅動力是美元走弱,這是由於美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)理事Christopher Waller發表溫和言論所引發。

Irina Yanina 13:49 2025-07-18 UTC+2

USD/CAD. 分析與預測

今天,週五,美元/加元匯率從昨天錄得的三周高點約1.3775回落。目前,價格略低於1.3730水準,顯示出約0.15%的日均小幅下跌。

Irina Yanina 13:38 2025-07-18 UTC+2

歐洲中央銀行可能將利率削減推遲至12月

雖然歐元試圖對美元進行調整,但經濟學家的一項調查顯示,歐洲中央銀行可能會推遲到十二月才作出最後一次降息。 大多數受訪者仍預計歐洲央行將在9月進行最後一次25個基點的存款利率下調至1.75%,此次預期下調將接在下周的暫停之後。

Jakub Novak 11:37 2025-07-18 UTC+2

鮑威爾回應白宮的批評

近期,美聯儲主席鮑威爾面臨越來越大的壓力,受到國會議員、白宮以及美國總統唐納德·特朗普的猛烈批評。 在周四寄出的一封信中,Powell回應了白宮一位高級官員對中央銀行25億美元翻修項目的批評。

Jakub Novak 11:26 2025-07-18 UTC+2

美國開始監管數位貨幣市場(比特幣和歐元/美元可能面臨調整)

美國眾議院已通過法案,建立首次以美元支持的穩定幣的聯邦框架,並針對其他數位貨幣設立規範。 對加密貨幣市場進行監管的想法已經討論了很長時間,但直到現在才獲得足夠的支持。

Pati Gani 09:28 2025-07-18 UTC+2

市場偏好弱勢美元

在經濟依然強勁的情況下,美聯儲降息對於S&P 500來說還有什麼比這更好的呢?一系列正面的勞動市場和零售銷售數據,加上企業盈利方面的驚喜,令投資者深信市場一切良好。在這種背景下,Christopher Waller呼籲最早在7月放寬貨幣政策的聲音,成為推動這一廣泛股票指數創下新高的催化劑。

Marek Petkovich 09:28 2025-07-18 UTC+2

7月18日應注意什麼?初學者的基礎事件解析

週五將發佈多份宏觀經濟報告,但其中沒有任何一份具有重大重要性。唯一值得注意的發佈是美國密西根大學消費者信心指數,這項指數將於晚上公佈。

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2

英鎊/美元概覽 – 7月18日:市場已厭倦美元和特朗普了嗎?

週四,英鎊/美元的匯率再度偏向下跌。在週三晚間又一則有關Powell被解除職務的報導出現後,英鎊走強,但美元很快恢復。

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-18 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.