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12.06.2018 09:54 AM
英镑正在下跌

GBP/USD

由于工业生产数据失败,英镑周一下跌26点。英镑可能会进一步下跌,但在央行举行重要会议之前市场总体低迷,意大利财政部长乔瓦尼特里亚发表声明以及美国和朝鲜领导人会议政治乐观的背景下,削弱了"熊"的侵略性。因此,4月份的工业生产比预期的增长0.1%下降0.8%。制造业的生产下降了1.4%,预测增长0.3%。建筑业的生产量有所增长,但仅增长0.5%,预计为2.4%,前期下降2.3%。英国4月份贸易差额将负余额从-120亿英镑增加到-140亿英镑。

今天的劳工数据将公布。预计5月份失业救济金申请数量将从3.12万减少到1.13万,但过去3个月(作为移动平均数)的就业人数变化预计为124000,3月份197,000。考虑到保费,平均工资水平预计将保持稳定增长 - 4月份的预测为2.5%,而3月份为2.6%。失业率(截至4月)预计维持在4.2%不变。不过,4月份的工业生产指数很可能会对就业指标产生压力。就美国而言,预计CPI增长--5月份预测为0.2%。

我们预计英镑将跌至1.3330下方,美联储汇率将上调至1.3225 / 45区间,并进一步扩大至1.3135 / 65区间。

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Laurie Bailey,
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