For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed extremely low volatility of 25 points again, as if traders took a pause in anticipation of a life-giving event. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation came close to the control point at 1.1180, where it is already close to the periodic support, slowing downward motion and forming a stagnation-rollback. For a long time, traders kept their short positions, and the current periodic support is not the first point where a partial exit was made. Considering the trading chart in general terms, we have already said that since the beginning of the month, the euro has lost more than 150 points, and the movement itself looked like a pulse move, which suggests a possible overheating of short positions. The global movement of the pair has not changed yet, carrying a downward trend.
The news background had statistics about open vacancies in the United States, where growth was expected from 7.449M to 7.470M, but as a result, the previous values were revised to the worst, and the new indicators were worse than expected: 7.372M ---> Act. 7.323M. The dollar against this background sluggishly went into a stagnation stage, showing low volatility. Returning to the information background, Fed Chairman Mr. Powell had delivered a speech, but, as expected, there was no pressure on the market, since the topic of discussion did not affect the refinancing rate, but the issue of stress tests of the banking system was discussed.
Today, the focus of all market participants is the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the United States Congress, where, of course, everyone is waiting for specifics about the fate of monetary policy, in particular the refinancing rate. But there is one instance, particularly the publication of the FOMC minutes was appointed after Mr. Powell's speech. Meanwhile, the meeting in Congress will be held in two days (July 10-11), thus, on the first day, it is likely that the banking system will be relatively stress-tested. The question regarding the rate will remain until tomorrow.
According to the statistics, we do not have anything cardinal, the only thing that is, is the data on inventories in the wholesale warehouses in the United States, where they expect an increase of 0.4%.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see a sluggish movement in the form of a rollback-stagnation, where the market participant seemed to lie low in anticipation of an important event. It is actually difficult to say whether there will be any jumps in the market today. It is necessary to carefully monitor the information flow and possible emissions regarding rates from such publications as Bloomberg. Thus, the major players take a waiting position, closing their positions, while speculators, on the contrary, is carefully monitoring the market behavior and trying to catch possible jumps, which is not expected to happen for today.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider:
-It is advisable to consider buy positions with a pending order slightly higher than 1.1240. More risky speculators are trying to see the entry point relative to the current fluctuation and possible slowdown (consolidation).
-For sale positions, traders seek to fix and tighten restrictive orders as much as possible. Further transactions will be considered in the case of price fixing lower than 1.1180, with the support of the inertial move, coupled with the information and news background, if it will take place on the market.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term unanimously look at the rise against the background of slowdown and rollback. Intraday and mid-term prospects are more moderate, and yet still hold back their desires on the initial downward course.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(July 10 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 16 points. It is likely to assume that volatility may increase due to the general information and news background.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1180 *; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
**** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment.
