empty
19.12.2019 09:32 AM
Trading recommendations for GBP/USD pair on December 19

From the point of view of a comprehensive technical analysis, we see a steady downward course, where sellers not only developed a previously formed bull rally, but managed to keep the main stream of positions on themselves. In fact, the psychological level of 1.3000, to which the quotation of some 59 points has not reached, already plays the role of support. At the same time, this very level [1.3000] embodies the ability to return quotes to lower values, which we saw a month earlier. Thus, it turns out that the potential of sellers is several times greater than the potential of buyers, and the previously set theory [in previous reviews] regarding the strong emotional background on which the quote pulled up is confirmed, otherwise we would not have seen such a remarkable mirror V-shaped model. Moreover, it's worth considering that the emotional background based on the information flow has not gone away. Therefore, impulses [chaotic price spikes] are still possible, but we already know the general interest of the market and it represents sellers. In terms of volatility, everything is fine, we still have pretty impressive indicators, and the average value since the beginning of the month is 120 points.

Analyzing the past hourly day, we see that the quotation came close to the local minimum on December 12, where there is a characteristic pressure on the quotation paired with the close proximity of the psychological level. Everything that happens is very similar to the regrouping of trading forces before the jump, and step-by-step consolidation [M30 timeframe] is a confirmation of this.

As discussed in the previous review, traders in the phase of regrouping trading forces began to actively consider new short positions, just below the level of 1.3100. Thus, it is worth considering that these positions themselves had a share of risk in connection with an impressive support, thereby using an incomplete trading volume per position.

Considering the trading chart in general terms [the daily period], we see a very remarkable pattern [December 13-17], which reflects a change in trading forces at high volatility. A pretty good signal, and perhaps the sellers will be able to develop it for their own purposes. In general terms, nothing has changed, the global trend is still downward but there is a medium-term phase of a possible fracture. In turn, the pound is under strong pressure under a separate consideration of economic issues, but not all of this pressure is seen, since the mind is clouded by emotions.

The news background of the past day contained data on inflation in Britain, where its level remained 1.5% while it was expected to decline to 1.4%.

The pound did not react to statistics, since the general background is putting pressure on the market.

In terms of information flow, we have exactly the same pressure in the face of uncertainty regarding the proposal of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to ban the extension of the Brexit transition period. So, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was not inspired by Johnson's initiative, saying that Britain would suffer more than the EU in the case of a time shortage.

"The time frames put forward for us are extremely complex and we have a very limited time until the end of December 2020. If we can't conclude an agreement before the end of 2020, we can be on the edge of the abyss again. This will obviously harm our interests, but the negative effect for Britain will be greater than for us. After all, the European Union will continue to receive benefits from the single market, our customs union and from international agreements signed with our partners." said von der Leyen

In turn, the fading Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn of the last forces is trying to encourage members of the same party on Friday [December 20] to vote against the signing of Brexit. However, we understand that nothing will work out with the current situation in the British Parliament about Corbyn. Let me remind you that there is not much time left for Jeremy Corbyn due to the recent election failure and he will leave his post in March 2020.

This image is no longer relevant

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we are waiting for statistics on retail sales in the UK, where a slowdown from 3.1% to 2.1% is expected, which may put pressure on the pound. After which, we have a meeting of the Bank of England, where you should not expect any changes regarding the refinancing rate, since it will remain at the same level - that is at 0.75%. What is most interesting is the comments of chapter by Mark Carney regarding further actions of the regulator. Let me remind you that earlier, Carney has already put aside the worst-case scenario due to the improvement of the climate on the Brexit issue. Nevertheless, the actions of the regulator after the transaction should be in favor of lowering the rate, and the question is how quickly these same actions will occur and on what scale.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a very remarkable consolidation. The amplitude of which is just over 20 points. In fact, we have a stop at which many opportunities are now spinning, due to the fact that the quotation is fully returning back to its original course. That is, consolidation is caution. It is possible that it is reflected from the psychological level of 1.3000, but there may be a surge that will just help break through the control level as soon as the trading forces exceed the boundaries of stagnation.

In terms of volatility, everything is just beginning, as yesterday's sluggish stagnation can help a new acceleration, which is just around the corner. The emotional mood of the market still distinguishes a high coefficient of speculative positions.

In turn, traders/speculators are considering a further decline in the direction of the psychological level of 1.3000 and below it. In view of the alternatives and local operations, a possible temporary upward surge is considered, if the price still manages to work out the control level.

Having a general picture of actions, it is possible to assume that if consolidation is still choked down. The psychological level of 1.3000 will be quickly reached and traders will begin a thorough analysis of fixation points for further operations.

This image is no longer relevant

Based on the above information, we derive trading recommendations:

- Buy positions are considered in the form of local operations in the case of fixing the price above 1.3100.

- Traders are already making sell positions with part-time trading, considering the prospect of a decline to 1.3030-1.3000. Further transactions are considered after fixing the price below 1,300.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators on all major areas have taken the downward side, which is a good signal. It is only worth considering that short-term intervals can give a variable signal in connection with consolidation.

This image is no longer relevant

Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for Month / Quarter / Year.

(December 19 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 19 points, which is an extremely low indicator for this time section. It is likely to assume that the breakdown field of consolidation, paired with the information background, may accelerate volatility.

This image is no longer relevant

Key levels

Resistance zones: 1.3180 **; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.

Support Areas: 1,3000; 1.2885 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2700 *; 1.2620; 1.2580 *; 1.2500 **; 1.2350 **; 1.2205 (+/- 10p.) *; 1.2150 **; 1,2000 ***; 1.1700; 1.1475 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is built on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment

Gven Podolsky,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

2025年7月4日歐元/美元預測

昨天的主要事件大體符合我們的預測——特別是預期中的「數字遊戲」發生了。但這項調整做得非常巧妙,恰好足以阻止反美元貨幣的增長。

Laurie Bailey 06:01 2025-07-04 UTC+2

2025年7月4日英鎊/美元預測

在日線圖上,英鎊已經在MACD線下方盤整。它本有良好的機會也在1.3635的支撐位下方盤整,但這次嘗試未能成功,略微複雜化了空頭進一步進展的形勢。

Laurie Bailey 05:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2

2025年7月4日天然氣預測

天然氣 (NG) 日平衡指標線果斷阻止了昨日的價格飆升——週四以下跌2.63%收盤。此跌幅則被MACD線所限制。

Laurie Bailey 05:53 2025-07-04 UTC+2

歐元/美元。7月3日。本週最重要的一天

週三,歐元/美元匯率從1.1802水準反彈,向有利於美元的方向逆轉,並顯示出輕微的下跌。然而,到週四早晨,此匯率又回升至1.1802水準。

Samir Klishi 12:10 2025-07-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD。英鎊可能停止獲得支撐

如前所述,多次提及的原因,主要貨幣在外匯市場中兌美元的走強主要基於美國貨幣的基本弱勢,而這是由於特朗普的全球關稅戰機制引發的廣泛不確定性所造成。該因素影響力的減弱可能對美元需求產生明顯的正面影響,對美元提供廣泛的支撐。

Pati Gani 11:27 2025-07-03 UTC+2

外匯預測 2025年7月3日:歐元/美元,美元/日元,英鎊/美元,SP500,黃金和比特幣

實用連結: 我的其他文章可在此區段找到 InstaForex 初學者課程 熱門分析 開設交易賬戶 重要提示: 外匯交易初學者在做出進場決策時需要非常謹慎。在重要報告發布前,最好保持觀望,以免因波動性增加導致市場劇烈波動時被套住。

Sebastian Seliga 10:57 2025-07-03 UTC+2

2025年7月3日英鎊/美元匯率預測

在小時圖上,週三英鎊/美元組合從1.3749的200.0%回撤水平反彈,轉為有利於美元,並跌破1.3611–1.3633的支撐區域。此下跌似乎沒有合理的根據,截至週四早晨,英鎊的報價位於1.3611–1.3633區域之上。

Samir Klishi 10:03 2025-07-03 UTC+2

若原油成功跌破樞軸水平,它有可能在2025年7月3日(週四)測試其最近的支撐位。

原油,星期四,2025年7月3日。 中國和歐洲製造業停滯等全球經濟狀況不佳,引發了對全球原油需求的擔憂,和對歐佩克世界石油產量可能增長的預期,而其擴張政策導致世界石油供應過剩,造成了暫時性的疲軟。

Arief Makmur 07:36 2025-07-03 UTC+2

納斯達克100指數有可能在2025年7月3日(星期四)測試其最近的阻力位。

納斯達克100指數,2025年7月3日,星期四。 大型科技公司良好的財務報告、聯儲會鴿派政策不斷加強的傳聞以及人工智慧創新興起,為納斯達克100指數帶來了正面情緒。

Arief Makmur 07:36 2025-07-03 UTC+2

2025年7月3日歐元/澳元匯率預測

在日線圖上,EUR/AUD貨幣對在價格通道的上半部分橫盤整理,並位於MACD指標線之上。Marlin震盪指標的信號線略微下降,仍然處於正區間,這為上行突破創造了內部緊張局勢的可能性。

Laurie Bailey 06:33 2025-07-03 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.