4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 125.4280
The EUR/USD currency pair starts near the level of 1.1000 on May 21 and intends to start a downward correction. During yesterday's day, the pair's quotes perfectly worked out the upper limit of the side channel of 1.0750-1.0990. The maximum price value was 1.0999. Thus, the upper border of the channel is now worked out exactly and clearly. Thus, now the quotes can begin to fall to the lower border of the channel, located near the level of 1.0750. This is potentially a decrease of 250 points. Only overcoming the levels of 1.1000 and 1.1008 will allow us to expect the formation of a new upward trend and further growth of the European currency. The macroeconomic and fundamental backgrounds were weak on Wednesday, but market participants, in any case, continue to ignore most of the incoming information, considering it uninteresting and unimportant.
Just the other day, we wrote that US President Donald Trump has started a new round of accusatory speeches against the Democrats. However, this time the name of Joe Biden was touched only indirectly, so to speak "for the company". The main accusations poured in against former US President Barack Obama, whom Trump accused of provoking the "Russian affair" and leading the campaign to prevent Trump from winning the election in 2016. And Joe Biden, according to Trump, "was in the same boat with Obama" and in general, all Democrats are against him. However, the US leader did not provide any concrete evidence or arguments. Thus, most political scientists and experts immediately concluded that Trump has nothing to blame for Obama and Biden. You can claim their guilt every day, but what are the facts? And no one knows the facts, except for Trump himself. Thus, it seems that the American leader, using the so-called "Obamagate" case, is simply trying to divert the attention of Americans from himself, from the "coronavirus" pandemic and the economic crisis. And of course, he tries to put himself in the best possible light before the voters and to denigrate the Democrats as much as possible. US Attorney General William Barr also confirmed that Barack Obama and Joe Biden are unlikely to face any charges, hence there will be no criminal prosecution. Trump himself was very surprised by this position of Barr and immediately criticized the Prosecutor General at the same time: "I think this is a manifestation of double standards. If I were in their (Obama and Biden's) place, they would start an investigation."
Most TV channels and periodicals in the United States almost immediately made a similar conclusion. The conclusion that Donald Trump is trying to distract the attention of Americans from the "coronavirus" pandemic, which has already claimed the lives of more than 90,000 people in the United States and the number of people infected with the COVID-2019 virus is already more than 1.5 million. Most experts in America associate such a strong defeat of the country by "coronavirus" with the name of Trump and his administration, which until recently did not want to take the virus seriously. The media call the "Obamagate" case an "informational story", knowing perfectly well that it is an interesting story, but not a real political or judicial trial. It is reported that only the Fox News channel loyal to the US President has seized on this topic and is actively promoting it. Thus, accusing Obama of "the largest crime in the history of America", Trump aims to worsen the reputation of the former President, and at the same time, Joe Biden.
Joe Biden himself also speaks out against his main political rival very unflatteringly, but not so sharply. Biden said that if he wins future elections, he will not use his presidential powers to pardon Donald Trump for his potential crimes. Biden also previously said that President Gerald Ford made a big mistake when he pardoned his predecessor, Richard Nixon, in the 1974 Watergate case. According to Biden, Trump's pardon will not unite the United States, but only show that some people are above the law. Also, some American publications report that as long as Donald Trump is President, he has the so-called "constitutional immunity", which does not allow to bring a criminal case against him. However, everything will change when Trump leaves office. Several charges could end up with a 10-year sentence for Donald. Among the main charges against Trump are obstruction of justice in the case of Russian interference in the 2016 election, illegal delay of military assistance to Ukraine, blackmail of the Ukrainian President to launch an investigation against Joe Biden, and extortion of campaign donations from foreigners.
On the penultimate trading day of the week in the European Union and Germany, the publication of business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors for May is planned. The values are not final but will allow us to draw certain conclusions about the trend in these areas. According to forecasts, business activity in Germany will start to grow in May. In the service sector, it will increase from 16.2 to 26.6, and in the manufacturing sector - from 34.5 to 39.2. These figures will remain scanty, but if they start to grow, it will be a good sign of economic recovery. In the European Union, the situation is approximately the same. In the manufacturing sector, business activity is expected to grow from 33.4 to 38.0, and in the service sector – from 12 to 25. However, we still do not believe that these macroeconomic reports will have any impact on the movement of the euro/dollar currency pair. First, the indicator values will remain extremely low. Secondly, in America, most likely, due to the gradual abolition of "lockdown", business activity will also begin to grow. Thus, the synchronously falling US and EU economies can now begin to recover synchronously. The main question is how much each economy will lose in the end and what will be the pace of their recovery?
The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of May 21 is 79 points and has not changed in recent days. Thus, the value of the indicator remains stable and is characterized as "average", despite a fairly active Monday. Today, we expect quotes to move between the levels of 1.0905 and 1.1063. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a turn of the downward movement within the channel of 1.0750-1.0990.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.0925
S2 – 1.0864
S3 – 1.0803
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.0986
R2 – 1.1047
R3 – 1.1108
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement. However, the level of 1.1000 was worked out, so there is a high probability of the pair turning down and a downward movement within the side channel of 1.0750-1.0990. Thus, it is recommended to consider selling the pair with the goal of 1.0750 after the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down, and buying is recommended to consider only above the level of 1.1000 with the goals of 1.1047, 1.1063 and 1.1108.
