GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned up on the 15-minute timeframe. Therefore, an upward trend is present in the short term. There is still a small probability that a downward reversal will occur near the 1.3606-1.3626 area, but now it seems that if it does, it will only be for a rollback.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair continued to move up on Tuesday, which had begun the day before, after a rebound from the lower line of the descending channel. As it turned out later, this rebound was not only enough for the quote to rise to the top of the channel, but it also managed to surpass it. The upper line is broken, so the downward trend is canceled. Consequently, the market will gravitate towards buying the British currency. Traders, according to our recommendations, should not open new sell orders during the day, since a rebound did not occur from either the Kijun-sen or the upper channel line. But it was necessary to buy the pair after surpassing the channel, although it was a little risky: the pair continuously went up by almost 200 points when this signal was created. Thus, it would be most logical to see at least a slight retreat to the downside, and then a resumption of the upward movement. Considering the fact that the price managed to move away by as much 250 points from the highs in 2.5 years, and now it has practically returned to them, then the probability of bringing back the upward movement is quite high.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair increased by 120 points during the last reporting week (December 29-January 4). The pound continues to maintain a steady upward trend. And the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which came out last Friday, showed minimal changes again. During the New Year's week, professional traders opened about 1,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and 1,000 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders has not changed at all. It makes no sense to also consider changes in other groups of traders, as they are also insignificant. Non-commercial traders have been extremely cautious about the pound for several weeks now, trying to trade it at a minimum. This is also supported by the fact that the total number of contracts for the "non-commercial" group is only 85,000 (for comparison, 340,000 for euros). The first indicator shows that the mood of large traders has remained practically unchanged in recent weeks. If earlier the green and red lines regularly changed the direction of movement, crossed, removed or approached, now they are directed to the side. But even this factor does not prevent the pound from growing in price. We conclude that now everything depends on the demand for the US dollar. As for the conclusions of the COT report itself, there are none.
We didn't have time to mock the fundamental background and the fact that it is often ignored. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey spoke yesterday and he reported several important theses regarding monetary policy. Traders reacted to this speech. On the part that dealt with the positive aspects. And then they ignored the rest. Thus, based on this, it is absolutely possible that the quotes could fall by 150-200 points as a way to work out the negative points that Bailey said (for more information, see the article on fundamental analysis). At the same time, this variant of the development of the event does not quite fit the hypothesis of bringing back the upward trend, but it perfectly fits the swing mode, which continues to persist on the 4-hour timeframe. In general, we recommend leaving the longs at the slightest suspicion of a brewing decline.
No macroeconomic reports in the UK on Wednesday, but the US is set to publish a report on inflation for December. According to analysts' forecasts, this indicator may accelerate from 1.2% y/y to 1.3% y/y. This is good for the US economy and this inflation could help the dollar continue to rise. However, you should understand that such high inflation in times of crisis is not due to economic growth in prices, but to the fall in the dollar exchange rate over the past nine months. For example, inflation is negative in the European Union...
We have two trading ideas for January 13:
1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair quickly returned the initiative to their own hands. So now we can consider trading bullish while aiming for 1.3667, 1.3704 and 1.3771. At the same time, at the slightest hint of a downward movement (especially with a reversal near the 1.3626 level), you are advised to exit longs and consider new ones only when rebounding from the Senkou Span B line (1.3565). Take Profit in this case will be up to 80 points.
2) Sellers seem to have seized the initiative in the market, but have not been able to build on their success. At the moment, shorts are irrelevant again, since the price went above the descending channel. So now the bears need to wait, at least, to break the critical line (1.3560). Afterwards, you can finally consider selling while aiming for 1.3496 and 1.3429. Take Profit in this case will be from 50 to 110 points.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
