4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 91.9091
On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading again in the opposite direction from the movement of the previous working day. Thus, the current movement of the pair can be characterized as a flat or as a "swing". In principle, this is not surprising, since both central bank meetings in the US and the EU did not give any interesting information to traders. Thus, we believe that in the near future, traders will again begin to pay attention to global fundamental factors that speak in favor of the European currency. Unfortunately, this is not the ratio of the states of the US and EU economies, otherwise, the US currency would have an excellent chance of continuing to strengthen. This is a factor in the new pumping of money into the American economy, which was approved by Congress and Joe Biden. Thus, in the near future, another $ 2 trillion will flow into the American economy, which will naturally affect the supply of the US currency in the markets.
Meanwhile, interesting events have begun in the United States and the European Union, which may play a big role in the future. The President of the United States of America, Joe Biden, is raising more and more questions from the American public. The fact is that the president is already 78 years old and his physical and mental state raises questions for many. Why did the American people vote for a Democrat who will be 82 years old at the end of the presidential term? We have already answered this question and now we continue to insist that Americans did not vote "for" Joe Biden, but "against" Donald Trump. The other day, Joe Biden stumbled three times while climbing the plane's ramp before he managed to reach its highest point. This curiosity immediately caused a huge number of questions on the Internet, ranging from the state of Joe Biden, ending with the mockery of Donald Trump and his followers. For example, former Trump adviser Stephen Miller said on Fox that the entire world is watching the US president. And this world and the opponents of the United States see not a strong leader, but a person who is not able to give an interview without a cheat sheet or climb the plane ladder without falling. According to Miller, the whole world is laughing at the United States, and the president himself poses a threat to the national security of the United States. Former US President Trump said that "he did not lose the election to this man". Also, more recently, Joe Biden made a mistake during a public speech and called Kamala Harris "president".
After such events, some Americans suspected something was wrong with the situation with the president. Many have suggested that Biden will leave his post much earlier than the deadline and Kamala Harris will take his place. They also believe that Kamala Harris became vice president of the United States for a reason and was initially considered as a candidate for the post of president. But since Trump needed a more popular and stronger opponent, the Democrats came up with all this theater with the victory of Joe Biden, who will later simply leave the office for health reasons. That's why Biden is already being called a "Trojan horse". It should also be noted that very few in the States support the idea of Kamala Harris as the country's president. If she becomes president, then in the midterm elections to the Parliament in two years, many may vote for Republicans to help them regain control of the Senate. Many experts note the state of Joe Biden's health, claiming that the president is almost "breathing hard". Thus, we may soon witness a new political spectacle in the United States. Donald Trump, meanwhile, is not asleep and he is going to become president for the second time, also at the age of 78.
In the European Union, meanwhile, the situation with vaccines remains quite difficult. Recall that earlier we wrote that the EU continues to have supply disruptions, pharmaceutical companies can not fully fulfill contracts, many countries do not receive the vaccine at all, accusing the EU of unfair distribution of drugs, and are forced to look for "options on the side". The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Sunday evening that the European Union will not export the vaccine to poor and developing countries and will not help them on a free basis. According to the head of the EC, the European Union should first solve its problems with supplies, and only then help others. Also, according to von der Leyen, the EU has already invested about 2.2 billion euros in the COVAX initiative, which involves providing vaccines to poor countries, which is equal to 30 million doses of the vaccine. Von der Leyen also said that since the beginning of February, the EU has sent 41 million doses of vaccines to 33 countries. At the same time, the EU authorities promise about 300 million vaccines available to the population between March and June 2021.
Thus, if vaccination in the EU does accelerate in the near future, then the economy may begin to recover faster. But the results of the fourth and first quarters are likely to be very sad. Recall that in both recent quarters, European GDP is expected to fall. Thus, only a significant increase in the supply of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market can help the euro currency. Otherwise, it is the US dollar that has a much better chance of growth.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of March 22 is 77 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1865 and 1.2019. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards will signal a new round of downward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.1902
S2 – 1.1841
S3 – 1.1780
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1963
R2 – 1.2024
R3 – 1.2085
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the moving average, so now there are more chances for a new round of upward movement, although in general there are signs of a flat. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in long positions with targets of 1.1963 and 1.1985 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed back below the moving average with a target of 1.1880.
