EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded in a very modest manner during the first trading day of the week. The volatility of the day was only 37 points. Of course, with such volatility, it is very, very difficult to count on an abundance of signals and large profits. Moreover, there was not a single important macroeconomic event or report during the day. Thus, there was nothing for traders to react to, and more important events will only take place this week. Therefore, it is possible that the markets are already waiting for these important events, and on Monday they simply did not want to take risks. By and large, only one signal was generated during the day. Moreover, it was very complex and twofold. The price bounced off the extremum level 1.2104 several times, but eventually surpassed it. Short positions should not have been opened in this case, as the support level 1.2095 lies just below. Recall that no signals are formed near the usual support levels, however, this does not mean that a rebound cannot follow from them. In any case, if any signal is formed and some important level or line is located nearby, you should wait for this obstacle to be overcome as confirmation. The euro did not surpass the 1.2095 level on Monday, therefore, the bears were not ready to sell the pair. And so, it was necessary to wait for the price to settle above the level of 1.2104, which was a buy signal. After this signal was formed, the price went up to a maximum of 20 points, which was enough to set Stop Loss to breakeven. However, in the end, neither Stop Loss worked, nor Take Profit. Consequently, the long position should have been manually closed at the end of the working day in a profit of about 10-11 points.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 15. The ECB is not going to wind down the PEPP program and the Fed is likely to follow suit.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 15. A very important week for the pound. The pair can finally leave the horizontal channel.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair has been trying to recover on the hourly timeframe all day after Friday's fall. However, as we have mentioned, volatility was very weak, so nothing came of it. Meanwhile, a new downward channel was formed. This is not to say that it is accurate and clear, since it is wide enough, in addition, it has a very small angle of inclination. Its boundaries are worked out very inaccurately, therefore no signals are formed near them. Moreover, we have repeatedly said that without a channel, the pair has a minimum downward slope. Therefore, it is not very helpful. Nevertheless, at this time, the pair may try to recover to the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines. On Tuesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that have remained unchanged lately. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.2051, 1.2104, 1.2160, 1.2213, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2184) and Kijun-sen (1.2159) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important events in the European Union for Tuesday, but a rather significant report on retail sales for May will be released in the United States. Traders will expect it to fall by 0.5-0.6%. If the actual value turns out to be better, then the US dollar may go back to strengthening.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 40 points during the last reporting week (June 1-7). All the weeks that recently passed have ended with such minor changes. Not surprising given that the pair has been in a limited range for several weeks now. Professional traders closed about 5,500 buy contracts (longs) and around 400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group decreased by 5,000 contracts. These are small changes for the European currency, which is still the most popular among all players in the world after the dollar itself. Recently, however, non-commercial traders have mainly increased their longs, so the data from the last reporting week can be considered an exception in some way. So far, the main lines of the first indicator continue to move away from each other, which indicates that the bullish mood on the market is preserved. Consequently, we have the right to count on a new strengthening of the European currency, especially since the factor of the global increase in the money supply in the United States continues to work in favor of the European currency.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
