EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair kept its downward trend during the first trading day of the week. Despite the fact that there were no macroeconomic statistics on Monday, traders continued to sell the pair in the afternoon. Moreover, this happened literally within 20-30 minutes, after which a rollback to the top followed and the movements calmed down again. The total volatility of the day was slightly less than 60 points, which is the average value for the pair. Thus, the flat was absent on November 22, but at the same time the movements were far from the best. Now let's move on to the analysis of trading signals. All of them were formed near the level of 1.1259, which, by the way, is a sign of movement in the horizontal channel. The first buy signal with an error of 1 point was formed in the middle of the European session, when the price rebounded from the level of 1.1259. After its formation, about exactly 20 points were passed up, which made it possible for the Stop Loss to be set to breakeven, at which the long position closed as a result, as the pair fell back to the level of 1.1259 in the US trading session. It turns out that the first signal turned out to be false. The second signal - for short positions - also turned out to be false, since after overcoming the level of 1.1259, the pair managed to go down 16 points, which was again enough to set the Stop Loss to breakeven, but not enough for the least Take Profit to work. The price also did not reach the nearest target level, so the second signal was recognized as false. Consequently, all subsequent signals near this level should no longer be considered and worked out. And no other signals were formed on Monday. Therefore, both trades closed to zero profit.
EUR/USD 1H
The downward movement continues on the hourly timeframe, and the downward trend is beyond doubt, since the trend line remains relevant. The price continues to be far enough from this line, and the euro still cannot adjust to it in any way. Also, the markets cannot yet find any compelling reason to buy the European currency. And this week there will be few important fundamental and macroeconomic events, so everything will depend on the "technique" and the mood of traders. We highlight the following levels for trading on Tuesday - 1.1192, 1.1264, 1.1371, 1.1422, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1436) and Kijun-sen (1.1306) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can change their position during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. The European Union and the United States will publish business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors on November 23. Far from being the most important indicators at this time, however, if the actual values differ greatly from the forecasted ones, then we may see some market reaction. More important events are not planned for today.
We recommend you to familiarize yourself:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. November 23. Inflation in the EU: no need to panic. The US again on the verge of a "technical default".
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. November 23. New crisis in Great Britain. The "logistic crisis" has not been resolved in any way.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD for November 23. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.
Analysis of the COT report
The mood of non-commercial traders changed quite significantly during the last reporting week (November 9-15). A group of non-commercial traders opened 7,000 buy contracts (longs) and 20,500 sell contracts (shorts) during the week. Thus, the net position for professional traders decreased by 13,500, and the mood became more "bearish". It should be noted that the European currency has dropped quite seriously over the past few weeks. But the net position for the "non-commercial" group, starting from October, practically does not change. This is signaled by the green line of the first indicator in the chart above. Almost all this time, it has been near the zero level, indicating the absence of serious changes in the mood of major players. Thus, if the general trend remains the same - over the past ten months, large players have seriously reduced the number of longs and increased the number of shorts, then in the past few weeks nothing of the kind has been observed, and the European currency was still falling. This suggests that what is happening on the market now does not quite correspond to the actions of large players. The second indicator (the net position for professional traders in the form of a histogram) shows that in the last six weeks the mood of traders has become less bearish, that is, in theory, at this time the euro should have been growing, not falling. Thus, if we draw a conclusion only on the basis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports, then a further fall in the euro currency is completely unclear.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
