GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD currency pair was trading on Friday... didn't trade. The volatility of the day was less than 30 points. The nature of the pair's movement during the final trading day of last week is clearly visible on the chart. And there is nothing to add to what happened. The pound was "sometimes empty, sometimes dense" last week. If on Wednesday and Thursday, for no apparent reason, the pair flew from side to side, breaking all volatility records, then on Friday it just stood in one place. On this day, there was not a single important macroeconomic event or any other event that the market could react to. The only report on industrial production did not arouse any interest in the market. There was no geopolitical data either. Therefore, there is simply nothing to analyze.
It remains only to deal with those trading signals that have nevertheless formed. Only a rebound from the Kijun-sen line and the 1.3050 level at the beginning of the European trading session can claim the title of a trading signal. After that, the pair was able to grow by 12 points and all hints of movement ended there. The long position could be closed anywhere during the day, it did not affect the final profit in any way. And this size varied from 0 to 5 points.
COT report:
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound has witnessed a new strengthening of the bearish mood among professional traders. During the week, the non-commercial group closed 300 long positions and opened 10,900 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 11,000. Such changes are significant for the pound. The non-commercial group has already opened a total of 88,600 short positions and only 35,500 long positions. Thus, the difference between these numbers is almost threefold. This means that the mood of professional traders is now "pronounced bearish". Thus, this is another factor that speaks in favor of the continuation of the fall of the British currency. Note that in the case of the pound, the data of COT reports are completely different from the data on the euro. According to the pound, the mood of the major players changes every couple of months, but at this time it absolutely corresponds to what is happening on the market. The net position of the non-commercial group has already fallen to the levels where the last round of the pound's fall ended (the green line on the first indicator). Thus, we can even assume that in the coming weeks the pound will try to start a new ascent. However, the current fundamental and geopolitical background does not give good reasons to expect a strong growth of the British currency.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. April 18. The foreign exchange market went to rest on Thursday. Preview of the new week: boredom and despondency.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. April 18. The pound "died" after unjustified somersaults last week. Ahead is a boring week without much hope for the pound.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on April 18. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, the pound continues to remain in a downward trend and not far from its 15-month lows. Thus, even taking into account the strong movements last Wednesday and Thursday, the overall technical picture has not changed in any way. There is still no trend line or channel, and the pair's movements are very difficult to predict and chaotic. This is clearly visible on the last three trading days of last week. On April 18, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2981, 1.3050, 1.3119, 1.3175. The Senkou Span B (1.3081) and Kijun-sen (1.3058) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels on the chart that can be used to take profits on transactions. There are no important events and publications scheduled for Monday in Great Britain. The calendar of macroeconomic events is also completely empty in the United States. There will be nothing for the market to react to during the day, so we do not expect strong trend movements.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
