EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair showed absolutely no interest in a strong move on Wednesday. After the pair had fallen by almost 200 points a day earlier, an absolutely sluggish movement began, within which the euro barely managed to correct to the extreme level of 1.0019. The pair could not settle above this level, just like below the Senkou Span B line. Therefore, the word "flat" is best suited to describe the environment. If you look at the calendar of macroeconomic events, this behavior of the market does not raise questions, since only one report was published during the entire day - industrial production in the European Union for July. Industrial production fell much more than expected, but the market did not consider it necessary to continue selling the euro. There was essentially no reaction. Thus, over the past day the technical picture has not changed at all. The bears need to overcome the Senkou Span B line so that the pair can continue to fall to its 20-year lows.
In regards to Wednesday's trading signals, the picture was quite interesting due to the unforeseen flat. The first sell signal turned out to be false, as the price overcame the Senkou Span B line, but failed to continue moving in the right direction. Therefore, the transaction closed at a loss. But the next signal allowed traders to earn, as the price reached the nearest target - the level of 1.0019. A rebound followed from it, which should have been worked out, and the price returned to the Senkou Span B line, from which a rebound followed. The last buy signal should not have been worked out, since it was formed quite late, but it could also bring a small profit. Thus, one trade is unprofitable, two are profitable. Not bad for a flat.
COT report:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro in the last few months clearly reflect what is happening in the euro/dollar pair. For half of 2022, they showed a blatant bullish mood of commercial players, but at the same time, the euro fell steadily. At this time, the situation is different, but it is NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 3,000, while the number of shorts decreased by 8,300. Accordingly, the net position grew by about 12,000 contracts. This is not very much, but it is still a weakening of the bearish mood among the major players. However, this fact is not of particular importance, since the mood still remains bearish, and the euro remains "at the bottom". At this time, commercial traders still do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 36,000. Therefore, we can state that not only does the demand for the US dollar remain high, but that the demand for the euro is also quite low. The fact that major players are in no hurry to buy the euro may lead to a new depreciation of this currency. Over the past six months or a year, the euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 15. The strengthening of the ECB's monetary mood no longer worries anyone. The Fed is once again occupying the minds of traders.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 15. British inflation brought an unexpected, but expected, "surprise".
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on September 15. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
EUR/USD 1H
Bullish prospects are hanging by a thread on the hourly timeframe. The price failed to overcome the important Senkou Span B line, so theoretically, the upward movement may still resume. However, consolidating below this line will open the way to the level of 0.9877. We still believe that the probability of euro growth is increasing, but remains too low, and the pair may hit 20-year lows a couple more times this year. We highlight the following levels for trading on Thursday - 0.9877, 1.0019, 1.0072, 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, as well as Senkou Span B (0.9971) and Kijun-sen (1 .0065). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Industrial production, retail sales and jobless claims will be published in America. These are far from the most important indicators, and we do not expect a strong market reaction to them.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
