empty
21.11.2022 06:48 PM
Brazil is preparing for a serious recession

Last Friday, Roberto Campos Neto, the central bank's president, announced changes to the fiscal plan, indicating that a deterioration in the fiscal situation might necessitate a change in monetary policy.

Brazil is preparing for a severe economic downturn.

This image is no longer relevant

The words are primarily addressed to the transition team of Brazil's incoming President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who intends to include new fiscal policy commitments in the proposed constitutional amendment.

The proposed amendment will specifically include the commitment to the new fiscal anchor, which exempts nearly 200 billion reais ($37.16 billion) in social spending from the constraints of the nation's budget.

The first step toward an unregulated economy was taken with this one. So, following the election, Lula pledged to remove the constitutional spending cap, which limits public spending growth by taking the previous year's inflation into account, without mentioning the new fiscal anchor that will take its place. Investors were alarmed by the news because it raised the possibility of a record-high rise in public debt and a change in monetary policy. Brazilian assets consequently reacted negatively by devaluing the real.

The head of the Brazilian National Bank today also spoke unfavorably about the substantial increase in spending that the incoming administration of the new president, who takes office on January 1, has planned.

Remember that the Central Bank had warned that it might resume tightening monetary policy if expected disinflation did not materialize after 12 straight increases, which caused interest rates to rise to 13.75% from a record low of 2% in March 2021.

After winning the elections, the new president is undoubtedly attempting to win over a devoted electorate, but new loan pools could burden Brazilians. In addition, the advantageous period of low dollar prices and unrestricted borrowing has passed. Taking out dollar loans at this time would be foolish. Although it is entirely justified given the current circumstances, the new government may continue to restrict itself to domestic loan bonds and avoid attracting external borrowings.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

5月23日美國市場新聞摘要

5月23日對S&P 500的展望顯示,市場在接近5,908的阻力位下方進行整固。在有利的條件下,該指數有可能上升至6,318點,可能會引發更廣泛上升趨勢的新一波。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:16 2025-05-23 UTC+2

科技蓬勃發展:Snowflake 和 Alphabet 表現亮眼,太陽能產業卻走下坡路

週四,美國股市收盤幾乎沒有變化,從早前的跌幅中反彈,因債券收益率從近期高點回落。這一變化發生在眾議院批准總統唐納德·特朗普的稅務和開支立法之後。

Thomas Frank 11:09 2025-05-23 UTC+2

由於Wolfspeed、Target和UnitedHealth拖累市場,道瓊斯指數下跌近2%

指數:道瓊斯指數重挫1.91%,標普500指數下跌1.61%,納斯達克指數下跌1.41%。報導稱Wolfspeed可能破產後,其股價大幅下滑。

13:01 2025-05-22 UTC+2

5月22日美國市場新聞摘要

Google 的股價顯示出穩健的上漲,由於技術信號看漲。投資者預期將會持續上升,目標水準設在 176.80、186.27 和 194.41,這使得該股票對於中期買入策略來說頗具吸引力。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:44 2025-05-22 UTC+2

道瓊指數下跌近2%,因Wolfspeed、Target和UnitedHealth將市場推入危機

所有目光現在都集中在美國眾議院即將對總統唐納德·川普的稅收提案進行投票。投資者感到不安:該立法預計將使聯邦債務增加3.8萬億美元,將總負擔推近40萬億美元。

Thomas Frank 10:06 2025-05-22 UTC+2

英鎊陷阱:為何英國通脹比美國經濟衰退更令人恐懼

貨幣市場正展開新篇章,而英鎊似乎正在撰寫這一章節。4月的通脹數據令投資者感到震驚:英國的消費者物價指數(CPI)環比上升了1.2%——這是自2022年4月以來的最大增幅。

Anna Zotova 00:05 2025-05-22 UTC+2

指數下跌、Tesla大漲、Julius Baer暴跌:市場中的鮮明對比之日

基準股票指數正在下跌: * 道瓊工業平均指數 -0.27%, * 標普500指數 -0.39%, * 納斯達克指數 -0.38% 在馬斯克宣佈願意回任CEO後,Tesla股價上漲。Home Depot在公佈第一季度銷售報告後逆轉漲勢。

12:40 2025-05-21 UTC+2

5月21日美國市場新聞摘要

在經歷了驚人的8.6萬億美元漲勢之後,美國市場顯示出疲憊跡象。儘管有負面的宏觀經濟指標和近期美國信用評級被調降,Morgan Stanley仍對S&P 500保持大膽的預測,目標設定在今年內達到6,500點。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:23 2025-05-21 UTC+2

美元不再稱王:您需要了解的資訊

歷史上,美元在戰爭、制裁和銀行危機等危機中一直是主要的避風港;投資者傾向於將美元視為最終的安全網。 到了2025年,情況已極大地改變。

Anna Zotova 00:59 2025-05-21 UTC+2

5月20日美國市場新聞摘要

儘管美國的信用評級被降低和國債收益率上升,散戶投資者仍然是股票市場中的活躍買家。淨購買額飆升至創紀錄的40億美元,這表明他們對股票市場長期韌性的信心。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:16 2025-05-20 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.