empty
22.09.2023 09:41 AM
EUR/USD: Fed's hawkish stance strengthens dollar

The Federal Reserve played its own cards very skillfully, allowing Treasury bond yields to rise, stock indices to fall, and EUR/USD quotes to plummet to a 5-month low. The Fed's "hawkish" pause turned out to be much more effective than the ECB's deposit rate hike. As a result, financial conditions in the U.S. have tightened, and victory over inflation is getting closer.

Before the FOMC meeting, the situation did not look attractive for the U.S. dollar. The markets were confident that Jerome Powell and his colleagues would keep the federal funds rate at 5.5% and predict another 25 bps increase by the end of 2023. Investors were surprised by the downgrade of the 2024 forecast from 4.6% to 5.1%, but they only made minor adjustments to their own estimates, from 4.6% to 4.8%. The market didn't fall for the Fed's bluff, but it sensed that going against it was a bad idea.

Federal Reserve's forecasts for the federal funds rate

This image is no longer relevant

The fact is that FOMC's estimates for GDP growth in 2023–2024 were significantly raised, and unemployment levels were lowered. Clearly, the central bank does not anticipate a recession. In such a scenario, the federal funds rate may not fall at all next year. As a result, the USD index will have the opportunity to close in the green for the fourth consecutive year—a very rare event. However, after a 9-week continuous decline of EUR/USD, it's hardly surprising.

The Fed's position looks very strong, but what if the central bank is wrong? The state of the economy could deteriorate sharply due to massive strikes in the automotive industry, government shutdowns pushed by Republicans, and, finally, the resumption of student loan payments. According to Goldman Sachs, this trio of events will lead to a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth from 3.1% to 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

Fed's forecasts for inflation and GDP

This image is no longer relevant

Can the ECB somehow influence the balance in the EUR/USD pair? I highly doubt it. Even the "hawks" on the Governing Council are not certain about further deposit rate hikes. Yes, they are trying to leave the door open for continuing the tightening of monetary policy, but it's not convincing so far. For instance, Joachim Nagel, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, believes it is too early to say that rates have reached their peak. However, in his view, the ECB has already covered most of its journey.

Central Bank of Ireland governor Gabriel Makhlouf believes that even if inflation remains at its current level, borrowing costs may not necessarily rise. Rates may stay where they are for an extended period.

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, to forecast the future dynamics of the main currency pair, we continue to focus on North America. If the Fed's policy depends on data, then new statistics will determine the fate of the U.S. dollar.

Technically, the attempt by EUR/USD to break out of the fair value range of 1.063–1.083 has not been successful. If the support at 1.063 can be breached, shorts formed in the convergence area of 1.0715–1.073 can be increased.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

3月31日需要注意什麼?新手必讀的重要事件分析

週一的宏觀經濟事件安排得非常少。唯一稍有趣的報告將來自德國,將發布三月份的零售銷售和通脹數據。

Paolo Greco 03:21 2025-03-31 UTC+2

AUD/USD:分析與預測

AUD/USD匯率組合繼續在熟悉的區間內橫向整理,停留在一個接近0.6300的重要心理水平的範圍內。這一走勢主要受到多項影響全球市場情緒的因素驅動。

Irina Yanina 11:16 2025-03-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD。分析與預測

今天,歐元/美元對正在主要心理關口1.0800附近盤整,沒有表現出跌破1.0780的意圖,投資者和交易商正在等待美國個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數的發布。 該數據將受到密切關注,以尋找美聯儲下一步行動的線索,預計這將顯著影響美元的短期動態,並可能為歐元/美元對帶來新的動力。

Irina Yanina 10:45 2025-03-28 UTC+2

市場在關稅公告前處於十字路口——特朗普即將宣布(#SPX 和 #NDX 期貨的差價合約可能下跌)

市場現在完全相信,美國總統將落實其計劃,實施嚴厲的關稅,以封閉國內市場,藉此刺激國內製造商。 瞭解這一點,投資者基本上暫停了交易,等待4月2日會發生什麼。

Pati Gani 10:39 2025-03-28 UTC+2

市場找到了罪魁禍首

第一次並不如願,不代表第二次不成功。在美國及國外汽車製造商股票的領跌下,隨著25%關稅的實施,標普500指數的拋售浪潮連續第二天持續。

Marek Petkovich 08:19 2025-03-28 UTC+2

3月28日需要注意什麼?新手的基礎事件解析

週五將有相當多的宏觀經濟事件預定發生,但我們認為這些事件可能只會引發當地市場的反應。英國將公佈第四季度國內生產總值(GDP)第三次估計值以及零售銷售數據。

Paolo Greco 06:26 2025-03-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD對概覽——3月28日:英鎊略微下跌後再次上升

英鎊/美元貨幣對在週四再次上漲,即使之前幾天才剛剛出現下行調整的跡象。市場已經消化了英國疲弱的通脹報告和美國強勁的耐用品數據。

Paolo Greco 03:00 2025-03-28 UTC+2

歐元/美元對概覽——3月28日:唐納·川普喜愛驚喜

週四,歐元/美元貨幣對保持著下行偏見,儘管整天交易走高。波動性再次保持低位,表明市場活動疲弱。

Paolo Greco 03:00 2025-03-28 UTC+2

歐元/美元。特朗普再度將美元打入谷底

在唐納德·特朗普最新言論影響下,歐元/美元對正經歷修正,因為他再次重新點燃了關稅戰。有趣的是,美元在總統的言論中最初反應積極——美元指數回到了104.00區域,達到了三週高點。

Irina Manzenko 23:44 2025-03-27 UTC+2

黃金知曉勝利之道

黃金並不是在唐納德·特朗普於11月大選勝出後的市場寵兒。事實上,當紅色浪潮明顯且共和黨重返白宮似乎迫在眉睫時,黃金價格有所回落。

Marek Petkovich 10:55 2025-03-27 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.