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28.08.2024 03:12 PM
歐元/美元:分析與預測
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今日,由於美國美元回升以及歐元區經濟支持的歐洲央行降息前景,主要貨幣對正在下跌。

儘管美元適度回升,但由於市場預期美聯儲將在九月份開始降息,美元仍然脆弱。

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然而,儘管九月份的降息已被交易者完全計入其中,但對於降息幅度的預期仍然存在分歧:可能是25個基點或50個基點。根據CME FedWatch工具,九月降息50個基點的可能性為34.5%,大多數交易者傾向於25個基點的降息。

關於降息幅度的更多詳細信息,應關注將於週五發布的PCE(個人消費支出)通脹數據。核心通脹進一步下降的跡象將引發市場對美聯儲採取更激進的政策寬鬆預期。相反,強勁的數據將削弱大幅降息的預期。

從技術角度來看,RSI(相對強弱指數)處於超買區域,因此預計會有向下修正。然而,上升的20周指數移動平均線(EMA)支持進一步增長。

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另一方面,2023年7月的高點1.1275將成為歐元多頭的下一個目標。預計下跌將在接近1.1000的心理支撐水準得到支撐。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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