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16.10.2024 08:35 AM
2024年10月16日歐元/美元熱門預測

原本預期歐元區工業生產的下滑率將從-2.2%放緩至-1.0%,但下降變成了0.1%的增長。此外,之前的數據被向上修訂為-2.1%。歐元區工業部門的情況比預期的要好得多。然而,外匯市場並沒有發生修正。美元繼續上漲,儘管其增長幅度僅具象徵性意義。

市場的行為看起來有些奇怪,除非我們考慮即將召開的歐洲央行管理委員會會議。約在一個半月前,歐洲央行將再融資利率從4.25%降低至3.65%,在這樣顯著的貨幣政策寬鬆後,大家都相信今年餘下的時間利率將保持不變。然而,本周初開始流傳著歐洲央行可能會再將再融資利率下調25個基點,甚至可能最早在本周四進行。這一推測尤其受到通脹持續穩定下降的支持。確實,周四即將公佈的最終通脹數據應該能夠確認這一假設。

因此,強勁的工業生產數據支撐了歐元,防止其進一步走弱。今天的宏觀經濟日曆幾乎是空白的,市場可能會圍繞當前水平整固。在歐洲央行管理委員會會議這樣的重要事件及歐元區通脹數據公佈之前,少有人願意承擔重大風險。

Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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