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16.12.2024 04:21 PM
AUD/USD:該貨幣對能否在近期上漲?
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今天,由於美元的溫和疲軟,澳元/美元的貨幣對吸引了一些買家。然而,現貨價格仍接近上週五創下的一年多來的低點。

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影響澳元/美元的關鍵因素

  • 美元走弱的支持:美元在週初表現疲軟,反映出美國國債收益率的小幅下降。這仍然是為澳元/美元提供一些支持的主要因素。
  • 澳元的阻力:澳大利亞儲備銀行(RBA)的鴿派傾向,加上中國持續的經濟挑戰,對澳元構成阻力。此外,市場預期美聯儲立場不會如此鴿派,這支持美元多頭,表明現貨價格抵抗最小的路徑仍為下行。
  • 市場對美聯儲的看法:投資者看似相信美國聯邦儲備局可能會放慢降息的步伐,因為在降低通脹至2%目標的進展停滯。此信念推動了10年期美國國債收益率達到三週高點,支撐了美元的樂觀展望。
  • 地緣政治及貿易風險:地緣政治風險和對美中潛在貿易戰的擔憂,也有利於作為最安全可靠貨幣的美元。這些因素要求在開新長倉位於澳元/美元之前謹慎行事。

FOMC會議是關鍵催化劑

交易者應避免在周三聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議結果公佈前進行激進的倉位調整。雖然普遍預期美聯儲將借款利率下調25個基點,但可能會對進一步降息採取更為謹慎的立場。重點將放在隨附的貨幣政策聲明和美聯儲主席Jerome Powell在會後記者會上的發言,這預計將影響美元需求,並為澳元/美元提供新的動力。

技術前景

  • 看跌動能持續:日線圖震盪指標依然堅定處於負值區,且遠未達到超賣水平,這暗示澳元/美元面對的最小抵抗路徑仍然是下行。進一步下滑可能使匯價更接近最近低點,而任何反彈都可能面臨持續的看跌情緒的阻力。

建議交易者密切關注即將到來的美聯儲通訊,以尋求匯率走向的線索。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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