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09.01.2025 12:26 PM
EUR/GBP:分析與預測
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歐元兌英鎊(EUR/GBP)匯率連續第二個交易日呈上升趨勢,歐洲交易時段交投於0.8400附近。

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該貨幣對的增長主要是由於英鎊自週三開始的技術性回調。然而,英鎊的下跌可能會受到限制,因為交易者預期英格蘭銀行將減少降息次數。2024年預測已修正為兩次25個基點的降息,相較於12月先前預期的超過三次降息。

根據英國零售商協會(BRC)的數據,2024年12月英國的可比零售銷售增長了3.1%,顯著反彈,相較於前一個月下降的3.4%。然而,儘管12月增長,BRC注意到2024年第四季度整體零售表現仍然疲軟,年增幅僅有0.4%。

同時,由於歐元面臨的挑戰,歐元兌英鎊匯率的上升可能遇到阻力。儘管歐元區通脹上升,2025年交易者預期歐洲中央銀行(ECB)將積極降息。ECB預計在即將於1月30日召開的會議上降息25個基點。

在歐元區的經濟強國——德國,工業生產環比增長了1.5%,大大超過了預期的0.5%增幅,並從10月的1.0%下降中反彈。然而,同比來看,11月工業生產下降了2.8%,相比於經修正的10月下降4.2%。交易者也在等待日內將公佈的歐元區11月零售銷售數據。

從技術角度來看,日線圖上的震盪指標仍處於正值區域,尚未達到超買區。因此,該貨幣對的阻力最小路徑仍然趨於上升,並存在短期回調的可能。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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