Nothing has changed much on Monday both in technical and fundamental view. Macroeconomic data was mixed and the officials did not make any announcements. Technically, the euro was in flat position the whole day, stock indices were mixed.
Today at 11:00 (+3 GMT) Spain will disclose information on GDP for the second quarter. It can be a real threat as, according to revised data, GDP fell 0.3% in 2010 in Spain against the previous reading of -0.1%. For 2011 the growth revised from 0.7% to 0.4%. For this reason financial aid of 100 bn euro may be not enough for the country.
We could see yesterday, that bitter public statements of some politicians about Greece exit from the Eurozone as well as criticism in respect of bond purchase program do not affect the market as investors are waiting for real steps from the ECB since September.
Conference in Jackson Hole on 31 August will be a very important event. There, Ben Bernanke will tell about the beginning of QE3 as expected. Traditionally, the president of the Fed informs about monetary policy prospects during this conference. Thus, in 2010 Bernanke notified about QE2. But, as it was said earlier, they may say about monitoring of economic data or program launching in November as the additional emission is still required for the budget (to be more precise for covering the deficit of the budget but not for economy development). On Wednesday we are waiting for the revised US GDP data for the second quarter. The forecast was quite positive: 1.7% against 1.5% (JPMorgan expected 1.4%).
We expect the correction to end near 1.2445. In case of breakthrough of the support area, it will be possible to reach 1.2418. Growth is possible to 1.2515.