empty
23.02.2024 01:31 PM
EUR/USD. February 23rd. The bulls dispersed for no reason

The EUR/USD pair on Thursday experienced an upward movement to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.0883), bounced off it, and returned to the Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.0823. The rebound of quotes from the lower line of the ascending trend channel indicates the preservation of the "bullish" sentiment in the market and the possibility of a new rise in the European currency. The consolidation of the pair's exchange rate below the corridor will work in favor of the US currency and indicate the completion of the "bullish" trend.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation is becoming more understandable. The last completed downward wave confidently broke the low of the previous wave, but the new upward wave surpassed the peak of the previous wave (from February 12). Thus, at the moment, we have a "bullish" trend, and there is no sign of its completion. If this is the case, then over the next few weeks, bullish traders may attack more actively than before, although, for example, this week the information background is so weak that it is quite difficult for me to assume based on what data the bulls are planning to launch an attack. Nevertheless, growth is present every day even without news and reports. The first sign of the completion of the "bullish" trend will be the closing below the corridor.

The information background on Thursday was quite extensive. In the morning, bullish traders launched a new offensive, expecting to see strong business activity indices in the European Union and Germany. However, these indices only disappointed the bulls, so they quickly retreated from the market. If the business activity index in the service sector can still be considered positive, as it grew to 50 in February, then the manufacturing sector again fell, showing a decline from 46.6 to 46.1. In Germany, things are even worse. In the manufacturing sector, activity fell from 45.5 to 42.3, and the service sector grew slightly. Thus, the decline of the European currency during the day was a natural reaction to weak reports.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.0862) and bounced off it. Also, a "bearish" divergence was formed on the CCI indicator, which increases the likelihood of a reversal in favor of the US currency and the start of a decline in the pair towards the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0765). Earlier, the pair closed above the descending corridor, but in case of consolidation of quotes below the ascending corridor on the hourly chart, bears will again gain an advantage over bulls. The consolidation of the pair's exchange rate above the level of 1.0862 will increase the probability of a continuation of the rise toward the next correction level of 61.8%-1.0959.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the last reporting week, speculators opened 8398 long contracts and 17713 short contracts. The mood of major traders remains "bullish" but continues to weaken. The total number of long contracts concentrated in speculators' hands is now 210 thousand, and short contracts - 158 thousand. I still believe that the situation will continue to change in favor of bears. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to maintain the "bullish" trend. I don't see such a background now. Professional traders may continue to close long positions (or open short positions) soon. I believe that the current figures allow for a continuation of the decline in the euro in the coming months.

US and EU News Calendar:

EU - German GDP in the fourth quarter (09:00 UTC).

EU - IFO German Business Climate Index (09:00 UTC).

On February 23, the economic events calendar contains only two not-very-important entries. The impact of the news background on trader sentiment today may be weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today with consolidation below the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with targets at 1.0785 and 1.0725. Purchases of the pair were possible when closing above 1.0823 with a target of 1.0883. This target was worked out yesterday. Today, you can buy on a rebound from the level of 1.0823 or the lower line of the corridor with a target of 1.0883.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 11, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline toward the 1.1645 level, while the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1712 was largely ignored by traders. A rebound from 1.1645 would

Samir Klishi 12:44 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 11, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3633 and resumed its decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527. A rebound from

Samir Klishi 12:20 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Despite the potential for a correction, gold still has the potential to strengthen today, Friday, July 11, 2025.

XAU/USD, Friday, July 11, 2025. Although it appears to have corrected due to being held at Resistance 1, the continued strength of XAU/USD's technical and fundamental conditions provides an opportunity

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

EUR/USD On the weekly chart, we observe a set of reversal signals: divergence, a trend shift in the Fibonacci time zone, and a price rebound from the intersection

Laurie Bailey 07:09 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

GBP/USD On the monthly chart, the British pound reversed from the 161.8% Fibonacci reaction level, calculated from the upper boundary of the global 18-year price channel, immediately after

Laurie Bailey 06:46 2025-07-11 UTC+2

USD/CAD Forecast for July 11, 2025

USD/CAD The Canadian dollar had been consolidating for three days before today's upward breakout during the Pacific session. The price has already pierced the balance line with its upper shadow

Laurie Bailey 06:42 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move along a trajectory known only to itself. The 127.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1712 was once again ignored by traders. I still

Samir Klishi 12:21 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 10, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3527. The rebound was precise, leading

Samir Klishi 10:35 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair is regaining upward momentum and shows readiness for further growth. The formation of an ascending channel confirms the stability of the bullish trend. During

Irina Yanina 10:22 2025-07-10 UTC+2

If the resistance level of 0.7964 holds back its upward movement, USD/CHF has the potential to weaken on Thursday, July 10, 2025.

USD/CHF, Thursday, July 10, 2025 In addition to rumors of a planned Fed interest rate cut and falling US government bond yields, USD/CHF weakened today. Key Levels 1. Resistance

Arief Makmur 06:47 2025-07-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.