Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 152.62 price level coincided with the beginning of the MACD indicator moving down from the zero mark, confirming the correct market entry point for further selling the dollar according to the trend observed since the Asian session after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, making the Japanese yen more attractive. As a result, the pair fell by more than 150 points. However, everything may change in the second half of the day. After the interest rate decision, a hawkish FOMC statement, which will likely remain unchanged, could alter the situation. Powell's press conference could also help the dollar recover slightly, although this scenario is unlikely. For the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario No. 1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directional movements.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 151.00 (green line on the chart) to rise to the 151.94 level (thicker green line). At 151.94, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the level. A strong rise in the pair today can be expected only after positive U.S. data. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 150.17 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the levels of 151.00 and 151.94 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 150.17 level is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 149.16 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point move from the level. Pressure on the pair will return if it fails to break above 151.00. Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 151.00 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the levels of 150.17 and 149.16 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Note: Beginner traders on the Forex market need to make market entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

Keep in mind that successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.