empty
09.10.2024 02:58 PM
GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on October 9 (Analysis of Morning Trades). Pound Hits a Weekly Low

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3066 level and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let us look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. The decline and the formation of a false breakout at this level provided a sufficient condition for opening long positions, resulting in a slight rise of the pair by 30 points. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has not been revised.

This image is no longer relevant

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

It is clear that the lack of data is impacting the pound, allowing bears to repeatedly push for new weekly lows, maintaining the downward trend. This afternoon, a series of interviews with FOMC representatives and the release of the September monetary policy meeting minutes is expected. All of this is likely to favor the dollar, potentially leading to a further decline in the pair, which I plan to take advantage of. A false breakout around 1.3066, similar to the one analyzed earlier, will provide a chance for the pair to recover to the 1.3109 level, where the moving averages, which favor sellers, are located. A breakout and a retest from above of this range will increase the chances of a bullish trend, leading to the triggering of sellers' stop orders and a good entry point for long positions, aiming for the 1.3152 level. The ultimate target would be the 1.3190 level, where I plan to take profit. If GBP/USD declines and bulls show no activity around 1.3066 in the second half of the day, as this level has already been tested once today, pressure on the pair will increase. This could lead to further declines and a retest of the 1.3033 support. Only a false breakout would be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.3003 low, targeting a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers are making their presence known. If the pair rises after FOMC members' comments to the resistance area at 1.3109, a false breakout there will provide a suitable opportunity for opening short positions, targeting a drop to the 1.3066 support. A breakout and a bottom-up retest of this range would only be possible if the FOMC members hint at a less aggressive rate cut. This would also undermine the buyers' positions, triggering stop orders and opening the way to 1.3033. The ultimate target would be the 1.3003 level, where I plan to take profit. A successful test of this level would strengthen the bearish market. If GBP/USD rises and there is no bearish activity at 1.3109 in the second half of the day, buyers might attempt to regain some losses. Bears would have no choice but to retreat to the 1.3152 resistance area, which could become the upper boundary of a sideways channel. I will only sell there after a false breakout. If there is no downward movement even there, I will look for short positions on a rebound around 1.3190, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction within the day.

This image is no longer relevant

The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for October 1 showed an increase in long positions and a minimal reduction in short ones. Clearly, the incoming statistics from the UK have recently created additional obstacles for further pound purchases, but no one is seriously considering selling yet, given the current indicators. However, it is important to understand that this report does not take into account recent changes in the market from late last week after the release of strong labor market data. Therefore, paying special attention to it is not particularly useful. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 6,144 to 161,469, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 629 to 67,704. As a result, the gap between long and short positions decreased by 100.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator signals:

Moving averages:

Trading is conducted around the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.3066 will act as support.

Indicator descriptions:

  • Moving average: Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average: Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA with a period of 12, Slow EMA with a period of 26, and SMA with a period of 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain criteria.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
GBPUSD
Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar
Summary
Buy
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on January 10: The Pound Doesn't Waste Time

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a decline of 120 pips on Thursday. However, during the European session, a reversal took place, allowing the British pound to begin recovering. Despite this

Paolo Greco 02:49 2025-01-10 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 10: A Forced Pause Before the Storm

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair essentially paused. Over the preceding days, the euro had been trading actively in both directions. Initially, the market anticipated an increase in inflation

Paolo Greco 02:49 2025-01-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 9th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2265 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to analyze what happened. A decline

Miroslaw Bawulski 13:08 2025-01-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 9th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0319 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to analyze the developments. A rise

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:53 2025-01-09 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on January 9? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair didn't just decline on Wednesday; it experienced a significant plunge. There were even fewer local factors influencing this movement

Paolo Greco 06:57 2025-01-09 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on January 9? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its decline on Wednesday, a trend that began on Tuesday. This drop raises some questions considering

Paolo Greco 06:44 2025-01-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on January 9: The Pound's Brief Joy

The GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp decline of nearly 200 pips on Wednesday. Notably, there were no clear local factors to explain such a significant drop in the pound. There

Paolo Greco 02:41 2025-01-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 9: Another Surprise for the Dollar

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair saw another significant decline. Although not as pronounced as the drop in GBP/USD, the euro has been falling for the second consecutive day after three

Paolo Greco 02:41 2025-01-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 8th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2470 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:53 2025-01-08 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 8th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0341 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:49 2025-01-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.