Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.10.2024 - Analysis for EUR/USD on...

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

17.10.2024 06:09 PM

Analysis for EUR/USD on October 17th. The ECB meeting did not help the euro

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD is becoming increasingly complex. Since January 2024, I can identify only two three-wave patterns (a-b-c) with a reversal point on April 16. After the completion of the current wave c, the formation of a new three-wave downward sequence may begin. The presumed wave c has already taken on a five-wave structure and now appears to be complete. If this is indeed the case, we may now see the development of a new corrective set of waves, which could be quite extended.

However, the entire trend section from April 16 could also take on a five-wave form (a-b-c-d-e). This scenario should not be ruled out, although its likelihood is low. I want to remind you that the news background may "mislead" for a month, two, or three, but not indefinitely. Recent reports from the U.S. indicate that if a crisis was brewing, it has already passed. The economy may slow down, but its current growth rate suggests that this period can be navigated smoothly. The labor market "cooled" in 2024, but now, with the easing of monetary policy, it is set to recover, as proven by recent labor market reports.

The Euro Continues to Fall

The EUR/USD pair dropped by 30 basis points on Wednesday and lost another 15 on Thursday, but the day isn't over yet, and we still have Christine Lagarde's speech at the press conference following the ECB meeting. In my view, the euro could be in demand today if the ECB president adopts a more "hawkish" tone. What would need to be said for this to happen? Christine Lagarde could indicate that after three rounds of easing, a pause may follow. That sentence alone could be enough for the euro to recover slightly. However, we need to look a little deeper into the market sentiment.

Today, the ECB cut rates for the third time, a move the market had been expecting. If it was anticipated, then it might have already been priced in, as markets often do. Nevertheless, after the official announcement of the meeting's results, the euro continued to decline. In my opinion, this suggests that the market no longer cares about how often or when the ECB will cut rates. The main point is that this factor hasn't been fully priced in yet, unlike the Fed's rate cuts, which the market began pricing in at the start of the year. Therefore, the euro will likely continue to decline until the market fully accounts for the entire course of monetary easing in the Eurozone. And perhaps even more, since the Fed's easing was factored in with a large margin.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to form a series of corrective structures. The unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1184 level indicated the beginning of a series of downward waves with targets located below the low of wave 4 in c. We can now expect the formation of at least a three-wave structure, with targets below the 0.9000 level. In my view, buyers will likely retreat in the near future, though a corrective wave is possible soon. The risk of the pattern transforming into a five-wave structure, surpassing the 1.2000 level, still exists but is becoming less likely.

On the larger wave scale, it is also evident that the wave pattern is evolving into a more complex structure. We are likely to see an upward set of waves, but its length and structure are hard to predict at this stage.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
If you're unsure about the market, it's better to stay out of it.
There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.