Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0809 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the upward potential—especially after solid U.S. data pointed to increasing economic activity. The second test of 1.0809, with the MACD in the overbought zone, led to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling. However, as you can see on the chart, after a 10-pip decline, the pressure on the euro eased. The pair's further growth depends entirely on today's data regarding the business climate indicator, the current conditions assessment indicator, and the economic expectations indicator for Germany from IFO. An increase in these figures will lead to euro growth. Data on changes in the M3 money supply for the Eurozone and private sector lending volume will not significantly impact market movement. Regarding intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, consider buying the euro if the price reaches around 1.0836 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.0879 level. At the 1.0879 mark, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Counting on euro growth today will only be possible after upbeat data from Germany. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting its upward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0815 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0836 and 1.0879.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0815 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0779 level, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if the data is weak, as the downtrend is still in place. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0836 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.0815 and 1.0779.

What's on the Chart:

Thin Green Line: The entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.

Thick Green Line: The estimated price at which take-profit orders can be set, or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin Red Line: The entry price for selling the trading instrument.

Thick Red Line: The estimated price at which take-profit orders can be set, or profits can be manually secured, as further declines below this level are unlikely.

MACD Indicator: Considering overbought and oversold zones is crucial when entering the market.

Important Note for Beginners:

Novice traders in the Forex market must be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.