empty
04.04.2025 07:52 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 4th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0994 level and planned to base my market entry decisions on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened there. A decline followed by a false breakout at that level provided an excellent entry point for long positions, resulting in a 50-point rally in the euro. The technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro posted a decent correction against the U.S. dollar, which large players quickly took advantage of by increasing their long positions ahead of key U.S. economic data. Two important reports lie ahead: nonfarm payrolls for March and the unemployment rate. These will determine the pair's direction.

Later in the U.S. session, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak and is expected to comment on the recently imposed U.S. tariffs on key trading partners, which could spark volatility in the U.S. dollar.

If the euro declines after the data release, a false breakout around the 1.1039 support will be a signal to buy EUR/USD, aiming for a bullish continuation toward 1.1104. A breakout and retest of that range from above would confirm the correct entry point for long positions, with targets at 1.1143, and the final target at 1.1179, where I will take profits.

In the scenario where EUR/USD falls and there is no buying activity near 1.1039, pressure on the euro will intensify. In this case, sellers may push the pair down to 1.0967. Only after a false breakout forms there will I consider buying. I also plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0891, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers tried in the first half of the day, and with some success, but failed to hold their ground. Now the outlook depends on strong U.S. data. If the reaction to the reports is negative, a false breakout at the 1.1104 resistance will offer a short entry point, targeting support at 1.1039. A breakout and consolidation below this level would be a good selling opportunity with further movement toward 1.0967, and the final target at 1.0891, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD continues rising in the second half of the day—which seems more likely—and bears fail to act around 1.1104, I will postpone shorts until we test the next resistance at 1.1143, where I'll only sell after a failed consolidation. If there's no downward move even there, I'll consider shorts on a rebound from 1.1179, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – March 25:

The COT report showed a slight increase in long positions and a rather sharp reduction in shorts. Interest in buying the euro is not rising significantly, but sellers continue to exit the market. Given the latest eurozone inflation data and ECB officials' comments, the central bank is likely to maintain its current stance at the April meeting, which could support the euro in the short term.

However, the extent to which U.S. tariffs impact other countries will be critical. The greater the perceived threat to global growth, the more pressure there will be on risk assets—including the euro. Long non-commercial positions rose by 844 to 189,796 and short non-commercial positions fell by 5,256 to 124,271. The gap between longs and shorts widened by 3,855

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages Trading is taking place above the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a new bullish market for the euro.Note: The author uses H1 (hourly) charts to determine moving averages, which may differ from D1 (daily) chart readings.

Bollinger Bands In case of a decline, the lower band around 1.1000 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths out price noise and shows trend direction. 50-period is yellow, 30-period is green.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, Signal SMA – 9
  • Bollinger Bands: Volatility bands around a 20-period moving average
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators (e.g., individual traders, hedge funds, institutions) who use the futures market for speculative purposes
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also plummeted on Tuesday following the release of the U.S. inflation report. In recent weeks, the British pound

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-07-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair plunged sharply on Tuesday following the release of the U.S. inflation report. As the saying goes, nothing foretold

Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 16. The Market Used Another Formal Factor

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement. Although core inflation in the U.S. rose exactly in line with forecasts—and the core rate even accelerated less than expected—the

Paolo Greco 04:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 16. U.S. Inflation Didn't Surprise but Confirmed Fears

For most of Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with minimal volatility, moving sideways. The Eurozone industrial production report showed a relatively strong reading

Paolo Greco 04:22 2025-07-16 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement. Recently, the euro and the pound have shown low correlation, as the euro

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-07-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair formally continued its downward movement but in practice traded sideways with low volatility for the second

Paolo Greco 06:45 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 15: The British Pound Shows Weakness

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement throughout Monday. Despite the absence of macroeconomic news in both the UK and the US, the market still found new reasons

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 15: Euro Stuck Near a Key Level

The EUR/USD currency pair moved sideways throughout Monday. In our previous article, we anticipated that there wouldn't be a strong move on the first trading day of the week

Paolo Greco 03:58 2025-07-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair traded with a relatively substantial decline on Friday. Why did the British pound fall again while the euro remained

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its mild downward movement, in line with the current trend. We've been saying the same

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.