EUR / USD pair

On Monday, the euro fell by 43 points mainly during the American session on expectations of negotiations between US trade and financial representatives with China's vice premier on mutual trade. Negotiations should take place in the second half of the week.

The price did not reach the target level of 1.1262 by a few points, but at least, the November 28 (a tick) was reached. Correction can also be from this level since convergence with the Marlin oscillator is formed on the four-hour chart. The immediate goal of the correction at 1.1335 is the resistance of the balance line and small consolidation on February 8.

We also note an interesting technical point in the period of February 4 to 11, the euro has been falling for 6 sessions in a row. A longer decline was only from 7th to 18th of November 2016, when the price fell 10 consecutive sessions in the US presidential election.

Nevertheless, the departure of the price to the level of 1.1262 will trigger a further decrease to 1.1215, and from this level, the probability of correction will approach 99% already. Contributing to this scenario, the topic on "security at the border with Mexico" will help information about reaching agreements in the US Congress. What this phrase means is not yet clear, but this fact removes the likelihood of another shutdown on February 15.